The government approved the Communications Industry Development Strategy until 2035

The government approved the Communications Industry Development Strategy until 2035. By this date, operators must 100% replace foreign equipment with domestic equipment and implement FSB-certified cryptographic protection. The latter requirement applies to fixed and satellite communications. The authorities admit that the pace of development of mobile networks in the Russian Federation does not correspond to the world level, including due to a shortage of frequencies, but they abandoned the idea of ​​​​dynamic access to them so as not to complicate the work of intelligence services. Experts and market participants believe that some provisions of the strategy are simply unrealizable, while others will lead to a serious technological lag behind the world level and even “degradation of communication services.”

The approved Strategy for the Development of the Communications Industry in the Russian Federation until 2035 is posted on the portal static.government.ru. It follows from the document that the authorities set the task by this date to completely replace telecommunications equipment from foreign suppliers with Russian ones (including software and hardware-software systems) in the country’s mobile networks. The use of domestic equipment in all promising communication networks will be enshrined in regulations. This also applies to satellite and fixed-line communications.

All base stations released within the framework of the “road map” for the development of promising communication networks must support FSB-certified means of cryptographic information protection. Their implementation is also intended to protect information on satellite networks and mobile communication networks, including for the purposes of “subscriber identification and authentication.”

From the point of view of the quality of communications for the population and business, the strategy sets rather modest goals. The document admits that currently the speed of mobile Internet in the Russian Federation and its dynamics do not correspond to the world (according to Speedtest, in October the median speed of mobile Internet in the Russian Federation was 24.04 Mbit/s, in the world – 48 Mbit/s). Among the reasons, in particular, the lack of sufficient radio frequency spectrum and precisely “trusted telecommunications equipment” was named. As an interlocutor familiar with the preparation of the document explained to Kommersant, trusted equipment refers to “communication facilities that cannot be disabled by foreign vendors and have received the necessary security compliance certificates.” Only by 2030 is it expected to achieve a speed in Russia that is at least comparable to the current world level—45 Mbit/s.

At the same time, the proposal to introduce dynamic access for mobile telecom operators to frequencies, which are also currently occupied by intelligence services, disappeared from the final version of the strategy (see Kommersant on October 25). The document states that for the development of 5G networks in the Russian Federation, the range of 4.8–4.9 GHz (with expansion potential to 4.5–4.9 GHz) will be assigned as the main one, and 694–790 MHz as an additional one. Frequencies 3.4–3.8 GHz (occupied by special communications in the Russian Federation) will not be used. Previously it was assumed that it was the principle of dynamic access that would allow operators to use the 3.4–3.8 GHz range. The Ministry of Digital Development did not explain why the initiative was excluded.

But the strategy retains the ministry’s proposal to abandon the principle of network neutrality (when providers do not give preference to any type of traffic, passing it equally and on equal terms; see Kommersant on May 22). One of the reasons in the document is called “the wider use of communication networks for managing critical infrastructure, the introduction of unmanned vehicles, smart city systems, and city security,” which set higher requirements for the stability of data transmission speeds. The previous version of the document directly stated that priority in the distribution of network resources should be aimed at “solving defense and security problems.”

Market participants prefer not to officially comment on the strategy. Kommersant’s sources in telecom operators are disappointed by the refusal to introduce dynamic spectrum allocation: “Creating networks at 4.4–4.99 GHz will be difficult to implement; according to the results of 5G studies, there are regions in our country where such ranges do not exist.” MegaFon confirmed that it had investigated the availability of the 4 GHz band: “The results showed that the frequency resource available in it for future 5G networks is seriously limited.”

However, the head of Content Review, Sergei Polovnikov, considers the proposal to use the frequencies 4.8–4.99 GHz as the main one for creating 5G mobile communication networks “quite feasible, despite the lack of a sufficient number of terminals supporting the range.” He believes that the clause on the dynamic use of frequencies was removed under pressure from the security forces, but not forever: “The FSO, FSB and other departments are now not up to 5G frequencies and creating and agreeing on dynamic use protocols. I am sure that in two or three years this issue will be returned to.”

The possibility of implementing the strategy in terms of import substitution raises questions “due to the low starting level,” notes Alexey Boyko, an analyst at the specialized Telegram channel @abloud62. He explains that 4G/LTE networks in Russia are built almost entirely on the basis of imported equipment, and there is virtually no production of modern electronic components in the country. According to the analyst, the objectives and goals of the strategy “are fully consistent with the current political course of the country,” but may lead to “a technological lag in telecommunications in the Russian Federation in the future.” “Even degradation of communication services is possible,” Mr. Boyko believes.

A Kommersant source among operators considers replacing foreign solutions by 2035 simply impossible: “Russian vendors have entered into forward contracts with operators for the supply of about 75 thousand base stations until 2030. There are now 754 thousand stations in circulation, even without taking into account the development of the network, about 679 thousand more stations will have to be replaced. To do this, we need to produce an additional 135 thousand base stations annually.” According to Kommersant’s interlocutor, such a production volume is achievable only if sanctions are lifted and the import of components is possible, or if “Chinese equipment is passed off as Russian.”

Yulia Tishina, Alexey Zhabin