The first freight company may change ownership

The first freight company (PGK) of Vladimir Lisin may be sold to a new owner. According to Kommersant’s sources, negotiations on the transaction, which is of a monetary nature, are at an advanced stage, although they have not yet been completed. Experts value Freight One at up to 220 billion rubles, which is approximately 20% higher than the company’s purchase price in 2011–2012. They note that now is a good time to monetize investments in specialized enterprises, since operating rates are at their maximum, and cars, even used ones, are very expensive. But the acquisition of such large assets, on the contrary, looks risky.

As Kommersant has learned, Vladimir Lisin may sell the First Freight Company, which he owns. Six market sources spoke about the negotiations. According to Kommersant’s interlocutors, the planned transaction is of a monetary nature, negotiations are at an advanced stage, but have not yet been completed.

Buyer unknown. Kommersant’s sources name Demetra-Holding, its shareholders or part of the Rusagrotrans holding, as well as Alexei Taicher, co-owner of Transfin-M, Atlanta and Brunswick Rail. However, all these parties directly or through representatives denied Kommersant’s participation in the deal. Two Kommersant interlocutors say that we are talking about “a completely new structure, although affiliated with well-known market participants.” One of the sources says the deal should be closed by the end of the year. FAS Kommersant did not respond.

Freight One is the leader in the wagon operating market; it currently shares the first two places in the INFOLine Rail Russia Top rating with the Federal Freight Company controlled by Russian Railways. Freight One was created in 2007, then separated from JSC Russian Railways as part of the reform. In 2011, 75% minus 2 shares were acquired by Vladimir Lisin’s structure for 125.5 billion rubles. In 2012, having purchased the remaining stake from Russian Railways for 50 billion rubles, Mr. Lisin’s holding consolidated 100% of the operator.

Today Freight One’s fleet includes more than 100 thousand cars (since privatization it has almost halved), recently the company has withdrawn from the segments of small-cube covered cars (see “Kommersant” dated November 10, 2022) and universal platforms (see “Kommersant” dated April 5, 2022). At the end of 2022, Freight One’s revenue according to RAS increased by 19.4%, to 105.8 billion rubles, net profit – by 1.7 times, to 38.4 billion rubles.

The time to sell the package is now very good, says the head of Infoline-Analytics, Mikhail Burmistrov, recalling that the cost can be calculated in two ways: based on financial indicators, and EBITDA last year for all operators was very good, and based on the cost of used per car, which is based on the cost of a new car, which has increased by about 40% since the beginning of the year. The market is very positive from the point of view of the freight base, he notes, the income of operators will grow, and competition and purchases are limited by the high price of new cars. In its pure form, the cost of the Freight One fleet could be about 140 billion rubles, Mr. Burmistrov calculated, and this is a conservative estimate of the business. And an optimistic estimate, taking into account profitability indicators, potential dividend payments, the availability of funds in accounts, as well as being pledged to Trans Synergy Freight One, is 200–220 billion rubles. Mr. Burmistrov believes that leaving the operator business will not affect the conditions of cargo transportation of NLMK, owned by Mr. Lisin, since the service is carried out under long-term service contracts.

President of the National Research Center for Transportation and Infrastructure Pavel Ivankin agrees that the time to sell the package is very good: operating rates are at their maximum, although their multiple growth is hardly possible, and Freight One is a company with excellent competencies, and not only in operating , but also in industrial logistics. From the buyer’s point of view, the situation looks much more risky and there are no visible trends that would now require a mandatory purchase. On the other hand, the expert notes, there are now quite a lot of factors that are beyond purely market logic. Mr. Ivankin believes that the deal, based on market conditions, will be very expensive.

Natalya Skorlygina