The exchange price for AI-92 gasoline for the first time exceeded 60 thousand rubles.

The exchange price for gasoline AI-92 for the first time in the history of trading exceeded 60 thousand rubles. In the summer, the cost of the AI-95 also updated record values. The increase in wholesale prices for gasoline occurs against the backdrop of an increase in export alternatives and insufficient supply on the market, resulting in an increase in the cost of fuel in retail. The government and regulators are discussing measures to stabilize prices, including export quotas, and also recommend oil companies to increase shipments to the Russian Federation, but so far this has not led to significant results.

The cost of AI-92 and AI-95 at SPIMEX on July 12 increased by 0.5% and 0.6%, to 60.02 thousand and 66.4 thousand rubles. per ton, respectively. The price of AI-92 for the first time in the history of exchange trading exceeded 60 thousand rubles. per ton. The exchange value of AI-92 and AI-95 has increased by 69% and 63% since the beginning of 2023, respectively. Fuel began to rise in price rapidly in the spring: since April, the authorities decided to reduce payments for the damper for the supply of gasoline to the domestic market. In parallel, the Ministry of Finance, in the face of shortfalls in oil and gas revenues, has prepared proposals to halve the damper from September, which encourages oil companies to increase wholesale fuel prices to compensate for the loss of margins.

The deterioration in the profitability of fuel supplies to the domestic market due to the reduction of the damper led to the fact that market participants sharply increased exports. At the same time, the weakening of the ruble made gray export schemes profitable, when the fuel for which the damper was paid is exported. A sharp increase in foreign shipments, large-scale preventive repairs at refineries and an increase in demand for gasoline since the start of the holiday season were also noticeable pressure factors on exchange prices in the spring and summer, and after them on the cost of fuel at filling stations. According to Rosstat, since the beginning of the year, retail prices for gasoline have grown by 2.9% by the first week of July, with inflation of 3.2%.

Gasoline prices rose due to insufficient supply of goods in the main session of exchange trading, said the interlocutor of “Kommersant” in the industry.

The situation is aggravated by problems with logistics on the North Caucasian railway, which leads to an increase in the delivery time of gasoline to stations and fuel shortages in the southern regions, he says. As a result, consumers from the southern regions of the Russian Federation increased their purchases of gasoline from Central Russia. Freight traffic to the south traditionally experiences difficulties in the summer, as more passenger trains need to pass to the resorts.

Another interlocutor of Kommersant adds that the cost of fuel is increasing following oil prices.

The government is dealing with the problem of rising wholesale prices, but so far has not been able to effectively solve it. As a result of the meeting held by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak with oil companies on June 30, the topic was touched upon gasoline export quotas. But Kommersant’s interlocutors in the industry doubt that such a measure will actually be implemented, pointing to the complexity of its administration. Also, the Ministry of Energy and the Federal Antimonopoly Service regularly try to force oil companies to supply more fuel to the exchange. The FAS even threatened oil companies with antimonopoly cases if they did not increase supplies to the domestic market.

Kommersant’s interlocutors fear that gasoline prices will continue to rise in September, when the refinery should again go for repairs, and the damper will be reduced.

At the same time, exchange prices are already close to the limit, after which oil companies will lose the right to receive a damper. The cut-off price for the damper, at which it is reset to zero, in 2023 is 62.6 thousand rubles. per ton of AI-92 gasoline and 64.6 thousand rubles. per ton of diesel fuel, says Boris Sinitsyn, Head of Resource Sector Analytics at Renaissance Capital. He emphasizes that exceeding the cut-off price is unprofitable for refineries, since they can lose payments equal to about 25 thousand rubles at a time. per ton of gasoline (at the current export price and the ruble exchange rate) and about 14 thousand rubles. per ton of diesel fuel.

Dmitry Kozlov