The dollar worries once – Newspaper Kommersant No. 31 (7476) of 02/18/2023

At the end of the week, the dollar exchange rate at the exchange trades renewed its ten-month maximum, rising above 75 rubles/$ during February 17. However, massive sales of foreign currency by exporters and speculators drove the rate down, while the volume of trading in the dollar with delivery “tomorrow” reached 124 billion rubles, the maximum value since the beginning of the year. The political agenda of next week promises new unrest for the foreign exchange market, experts believe.

On Friday, the dollar exchange rate at the Moscow Exchange for the first time in ten months rose above the level of 75 rubles/$. Already during the morning session, the rate reached 75.25 rubles / $, by 40 kopecks. higher than the previous day’s close. However, it was not possible to keep the rate at new local highs for a long time, and by 16:30 it rolled back to 73.91 rubles/$. As a result of the trading session, the rate was 74.29 rubles / $, which is 57 kopecks. lower than Thursday’s close, but almost 90 kopecks. higher than the previous Friday’s close. The euro exchange rate fell by 65 kopecks during the day, to the level of 79.3 rubles / €, having added 86 kopecks over the week. The yuan lost almost 12 kopecks in value per day. and dropped to the level of 10.76 rubles/CNY, which is only 1 kopeck. higher than a week ago.

Rollback from multi-month highs occurred with increased investor activity. The volume of trading in dollars with delivery “tomorrow” amounted to almost 124 billion rubles, twice as high as the result of the previous day and the maximum value this year. The volume of trading in the yuan reached 113 billion rubles, also renewing the maximum since the beginning of the year. Only trading in the euro was less intensive – trading volumes remained near the levels of the last days, about 40 billion rubles.

The increased volume of trading may be related to the activation of the sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters at an attractive rate.

“The peak of the tax period (February 27–28) is just around the corner, and on Friday morning the dollar could be sold for about 5.5% more than ten days ago,” notes Oleg Syrovatkin, Leading Analyst of the Global Research Department at Otkritie Investments. . The low trading volume in the euro is due to a reduction in its share in the foreign trade turnover of the Russian Federation after the entry into force of EU sanctions on the export of Russian oil and petroleum products, as well as a reduction in the export of Russian gas to Europe, he said.

Along with exporters, the currency was also sold by speculators who actively increased their positions in the previous days. According to Sovcombank’s chief analyst Mikhail Vasiliev, the 75 rub/$ level was the target for many financial speculators to take profits after the ruble’s two-week weakening.

During this time, the dollar exchange rate has grown in the Russian market by more than 7%. “When the active strengthening of the ruble began, many market participants who previously played against the ruble probably began to close short positions in the Russian currency, which also strengthened its strengthening,” Mr. Vasiliev notes. This can be indirectly indicated by an increase in the number of transactions with dollars and a drop in the average value of a transaction. As a result of Friday, the number of transactions exceeded 51 thousand, which is two and a half times higher than the previous day and the maximum since December 22. At the same time, the average deal size fell by 27% to RUB 2.4 million, the lowest level since January 5.

Although the upcoming working week will be short, it will be full of events that could have a strong impact on the positions of the Russian currency.

On Tuesday, February 21, the President of the Russian Federation will address the Federal Assembly with a message. On Wednesday, February 22, the State Duma and the Federation Council will gather for unscheduled meetings. In turn, the United States, Europe and the G7 countries promised new large-scale anti-Russian sanctions by February 24. “Given the long holidays in Russia, the foreign exchange market may be thin, and the fluctuations of the ruble in the face of a dense flow of news may be increased,” Mikhail Vasiliev believes. According to Polina Khvoynitskaya, Head of Investment Strategy and Analyst at Expobank, the geopolitical factor may stimulate another wave of ruble depreciation. According to her, next week the dollar exchange rate will remain in the range of 72.5-75 rubles/$.

Vitaly Gaidaev