The dollar was given a seasonal discount – Newspaper Kommersant No. 6 (7451) of 14.01.

The ruble completed the first full working week of the new year with a confident strengthening of its positions against the leading world currencies. The US dollar fell below 69 rubles / $, and the euro exchange rate approached 74 rubles / €. This is facilitated by a drop in demand for currencies from importers and speculators, as well as the launch of sales of Chinese currency under the fiscal rule.

On Friday, January 13, the rate of the American currency at the auctions of the Moscow Exchange updated a four-week low. At the beginning of the trading session, it fell to 67.08 rubles / $, the lowest level since December 19th. Even taking into account the correction in the second half of the day and the return to 68.79 rubles / $, the US currency fell in price by more than 3.3 rubles over the week. The euro exchange rate lost 2 rubles in a week, dropping to 74.15 rubles/€.

At the same time, the American currency was losing its positions in the world market. The DXY index hit a seven-month low on Friday at 102.2, down 2.7% from the end of last week, according to Investing.com. The euro rose by 1.7% over the week to $1.082. This was facilitated by data on employment and inflation in the US, which strengthened the confidence of market participants that the Fed will reduce the pace of rate hikes (see Kommersant of January 13).

There were also internal factors to strengthen the ruble, including a seasonally strong current account and the beginning of the Central Bank’s operations in the foreign exchange market within the framework of the budget rule. The first quarter is traditionally the most favorable for the ruble due to the seasonality of the current account of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation, in particular, the high supply of foreign currency from exports with low demand for imports and tourism. “Importers are buying less goods due to the low season, companies are less repaying external debts, the demand for foreign currency for tourist trips abroad is falling. As a result, the trade balance surplus in January could amount to about $10 billion,” estimates Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank.

The Russian currency also received support against the background of the application of the new budget rule. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov spoke about its launch back in December. Therefore, as Mikhail Shulgin, head of the global research department at Otkritie Investments, notes, the market was pledged to buy yuan in the NWF. However, due to the fact that the Ministry of Finance predicts a budget shortfall of 54.5 billion rubles in January. oil and gas revenues, the Central Bank will sell the yuan (in the amount of 3.2 billion rubles daily), which supported the Russian currency.

These sales, according to Mikhail Shulgin, are about 4% of the average daily volume of transactions with the yuan in December. However, the resumption of the budget rule in support of the ruble became a catalyst for profit-taking by those market participants who carried their foreign exchange position through the New Year holidays, hedging the risks of the Russian currency, said Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank.

At the same time, the beginning of sales of the yuan within the framework of the budget rule, which occurred on Friday, caused a reversal in rates in the second half of trading. Market participants note that the principle “buy (ruble) on expectations (of interventions) and sell after (their beginning)” has worked, and in all currencies. “In order to minimize arbitrage, the dollar and euro also followed the vector of the yuan against the ruble. From the point of view of the foreign exchange market, it does not matter which currency to sell, the ruble can strengthen against the majority with the neutral dynamics of all these currencies,” explains Mr. Evstifeev.

At the same time, Egor Zhilnikov, chief analyst at PSB, does not rule out a strengthening of the ruble and a return of the dollar to the level of 65 rubles / $ in the coming weeks, provided there are no geopolitical shocks. Quotes will continue to be determined mainly by the activity of exporters in the market, whose operations will intensify as the tax period approaches. In early February, Mikhail Vasilyev does not rule out a moderate weakening of the ruble against the backdrop of the end of the January tax period and the entry into force of a new package of anti-Russian sanctions. At the same time, analysts expect increased support from the fiscal rule. “Given the decline in Brent oil prices and information about the increase in the Urals price discount to Brent, the market may be based on the fact that in the coming months the situation with lost oil and gas revenues will persist and the volume of currency sales from the NWF may increase, more noticeably preventing the weakening of the ruble or even provoking some strengthening of it,” notes Mikhail Shulgin.

Vitaly Gaidaev