The dollar is not exchanged for particulars – Newspaper Kommersant No. 59 (7504) dated 04/06/2023

Private investors are losing interest in exchange trading in the US dollar. According to the results of March, the average daily number of transactions with US currency amounted to 20,000, which is two to three times lower than last year’s figures, although the average transaction size reached an annual maximum. At the same time, the integration of the yuan into the financial system is increasing, as well as the speculative activity of individuals in the Turkish lira.

According to Kommersant’s estimate, based on data from the Moscow Exchange, in March, the average size of a deal in US currency with delivery “tomorrow” amounted to 3.85 million rubles, which is a quarter higher than in February and the maximum result since March 2022. But this is happening against the background of a decrease in the number of transactions. According to the results of the past month, the average daily indicator was 20 thousand, while in February it was 23.6 thousand, and in the summer of 2022 it exceeded 50 thousand.

At the same time, the volume of the average transaction is also growing at the auctions in the Chinese currency. At the end of March, it reached 2.25 million rubles, which is a quarter higher than in February and the highest result since January 2022. However, a year ago, for the entire month, only 10,000 transactions were made with a total volume of 27 billion rubles; in March of this year, an average of 40,000 transactions with a total volume of 90 billion rubles were made daily. “Growth in the size of the average transaction is accompanied by the preservation of their number. This confirms that the yuan continues to integrate into the Russian financial system,” said Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department at Zenit Bank.

An increase in the average size of a transaction in dollars with a simultaneous decrease in their number indicates a drop in activity in the citizens’ market and reflects the development of the process of de-dollarization of the Russian economy and the shift to the currencies of friendly countries in foreign trade settlements.

In addition, from March 6, the Bank of Russia extended for another six months, until September 9, restrictions on the withdrawal of cash foreign currency. As a result, individuals have no particular reason to buy it on the exchange.

“Citizens can buy dollars or euros on the Moscow Exchange and keep them in a brokerage or bank account, but it will not be possible to withdraw the currency in cash. With this in mind, it is easier to immediately exchange rubles for dollars or euros at a currency exchange office,” notes Oleg Syrovatkin, Leading Analyst of the Global Research Department at Otkritie Investments.

After the tenth package of European sanctions, which hit several private banks at once, the risks of imposing restrictions on operations with non-cash dollars and euros have also increased. “The decrease in speculative activity is facilitated by a decrease in the liquidity of derivatives for the dollar/ruble currency pair, which leads to a shortening of the duration of hedging operations. This should also include increased commissions for exchange trading in the dollar / ruble pair, ”notes Vladimir Evstifeev.

According to Oleg Syrovatkin, the futures market is more suitable for speculation, where there are no risks of restrictions, and the leverage is higher. As a result, over the past four months in the “perpetual” futures for the dollar / ruble and euro / ruble, trading volumes have increased several times.

The structural transformation of the foreign exchange market will continue throughout the year, says Denis Popov, chief analyst at PSB.

At the same time, the most dynamic will no longer be the yuan, with which transactions have grown dozens of times over the year, but the Turkish lira. According to the chief analyst of Sovcombank Mikhail Vasilyev, this will be facilitated not only by the relocation of Russians and the popularity of this country for tourism, but also by the fact that Turkey has become one of the main trade hubs for Russia and trade between the countries has grown significantly.

“Infrastructure in other friendly currencies is not yet so developed, but we expect an increase in their turnover on the Moscow Exchange,” notes Mikhail Vasiliev. On Monday (see “Kommersant” dated April 4) The exchange launched trading in futures for the UAE dirham and the Indian rupee.

Vitaly Gaidaev