The dollar has risen above oil

The exchange rate of the dollar, after a month and a half break, fixed above the level of 63 rubles/$. The euro and yuan exchange rates hit new highs since July and August, reaching 66.5 rubles/€ and 9.04 rubles/CNY. This is facilitated by market participants’ expectations of a reduction in Russian oil exports against the background of the embargo on its supply to Europe, as well as the traditional increase in imports at the end of the year. By the end of the year, the dollar exchange rate may reach 64-65 rubles/$, analysts estimate.

On Tuesday, December 6, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange for the first time since mid-October rose above the level of 63 rubles/$. During the auction, it reached the level of 63.2875 rubles / $, which is 94 kopecks. higher than the previous day’s close. As a result of the main session, the rate stopped near the mark of 63.085 rubles/$. The euro exchange rate in the course of trading reached 66.485 rubles / €, a maximum since July 6, the yuan exchange rate reached a maximum since August 17 – 9.04 rubles / CNY.

Once again, in transactions with “tomorrow” execution, the volume of trading in yuan (95.1 billion rubles) exceeded the volume of trading in dollars (78.6 billion rubles). Moreover, the volume of transactions with the Chinese currency was the fifth largest for the entire time of its circulation on the stock exchange. In euro, the trading volume did not even reach 40 billion rubles, 12% lower than the result of the previous day.

The weakness of the Russian currency is associated primarily with the start of the EU embargo on the supply of Russian oil by sea from December 5.

According to the head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank Vladimir Evstifeev, the introduction of EU restrictions creates certain difficulties in oil supplies until part of the supply infrastructure to friendly countries is debugged, which leads to a decrease in the inflow of foreign currency into the country. “We expect a temporary drop in oil exports and production, much like it was in the spring of 2022, when production decreased from 11 million to 10 million barrels per day,” Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, estimates.

Under the conditions of Western sanctions and severe currency restrictions in Russia, the main factor in the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate was the difference between exports and imports.

Taking into account restrictions on the supply of oil to Europe, as well as falling prices on the world oil market, the role of importers has noticeably grown recently, which in recent months have been building supply chains to the attractive Russian market, increasing demand for foreign currency. “Imports of goods to Russia at the end of the year traditionally increase for New Year’s sales,” notes Mikhail Vasiliev.

In connection with the strategic reorientation of the Russian economy from West to East, first of all, there is an increase in such imports, the currency of which is the yuan. According to the General Administration of Customs of China, trade with Russia in January-October amounted to almost $154 billion, which is 33% higher than the level of the same period in 2021. In such conditions, the demand for the Chinese currency is presented not only by importers, but by local participants in foreign economic activity. In addition, there are many people on the market who want to hedge the risks of owning reserve currencies, notes Vladimir Evstifeev. Local private investors are also showing interest in the Chinese currency. What, according to the head of investment strategy and analytics at Expobank Polina Khvoynitskaya, is facilitated by the emergence of financial products in yuan in the form of bank deposits and corporate bonds, which allow you to receive additional income when investing in Chinese currency.

Under the current conditions, the weakening of the ruble may continue, according to market participants.

According to PSB chief analyst Egor Zhilnikov, the reduction in the supply of foreign currency on the market due to the embargo and the fall in oil prices may lead to the dollar exchange rate falling into the range of 64-65 rubles / $. “In the second half of December, the ruble will be supported by the tax period, when exporters will actively sell foreign currency for settlements with the budget. But in the last days of the month, a traditional surge in the demand of a number of market participants for currency is possible in order to sit out the long New Year holidays in it,” Mikhail Vasilyev notes.

Vitaly Gaidaev