The dollar does not care about the ruble – Newspaper Kommersant No. 147 (7348) of 08/13/2022

The first two weeks of August, the Russian currency demonstrated enviable stability. The dollar exchange rate at exchange trading fluctuated between 60-61 rubles / $ – such a change was typical for certain periods of a calmer 2021. Experts attribute the temporary lull in the foreign exchange market to the equalization of demand and supply of foreign currency against the backdrop of the holiday period. However, in the second half of August, volatility may increase both due to the withdrawal of friendly non-residents from government securities, and the beginning of the tax period, in which sales of export earnings increase.

The dollar exchange rate on the results of trading on Friday, August 12, on the Moscow Exchange stopped at 60.61 rubles / $. This is for 7 kopecks. lower than Thursday’s close and 3 kopecks. above the close of a week ago. On the whole, since the beginning of the month, the exchange rate of the American currency has remained in a very narrow range for most of the time — 60–61 rubles/$. At the same time, the intensity of trading in August 2022 was quite high. In August, the volume of transactions with the dollar with the calculation “tomorrow” amounted to 80-150 billion rubles. daily, that is, at the level of July values, when the dollar exchange rate fluctuated between 55–65 rubles/$. At the same time, the daily volume of transactions with the Chinese currency was 50–70 billion rubles, while for most of July it did not exceed 40 billion rubles.

Bidders attribute the temporary decrease in the volatility of the foreign exchange market to the balance of supply and demand against the backdrop of the absence of speculative ideas.

According to the head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank Vladimir Evstifeev, it is risky to play for the strengthening of the ruble with interventions from the Ministry of Finance, while “the possibilities for the weakening of the ruble from the Russian authorities are also not unlimited.” Short periods of “stable” currency trading were observed last year as well. As Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, reminds, in mid-December, trading was conducted in the range of 73.5-74.5 rubles / $ for several weeks, in mid-September – in the range of 72.5-73.5 rubles / $, in May – in the range of 73–74 rubles/$.

Experts name the modernization of the principles of work of exporters as a factor in the stability of trading volumes.

Andrey Kochetkov, a leading analyst at the Otkritie Investments global research department, explains that if earlier they could count on the intervention of the Ministry of Finance, which extinguished the excessive volatility of the ruble, “then today they are trying to distribute the sale of foreign exchange earnings more evenly.” In addition, the issue of selling gas and some other resources for rubles implies a constant demand for the Russian currency. At the same time, according to the expert, there are “signals about the establishment of parallel import channels by large suppliers, including manufacturers of cars and components.” In addition, the population was actively buying foreign currency, including for withdrawal abroad, the Central Bank previously indicated. In particular, in July, the volume of purchases of foreign currency by the population amounted to 237.1 billion rubles. against 176.1 billion rubles. in June. As a result, a strong trade balance is supporting the ruble, but growing parallel and direct imports, as well as the export of foreign currency abroad by individuals, have begun to generate relatively stable demand, Mr. Kochetkov concluded.

However, in the second half of the month, the volatility of currency trading may increase. Part of the pressure on the Russian currency may come from non-residents from friendly countries, who will have access to OFZ trading next week. According to Mr. Kochetkov, their share of the Russian government securities market is 5-10%, or about 140-280 billion rubles. According to Mikhail Vasiliev, a part of foreign investors “can fix the profit received during these months in OFZ and withdraw it into foreign currency.” However, in his opinion, this factor will be rather short-term. In addition, according to Andrey Kochetkov, not all non-residents will start selling OFZs, or at least “will do it all at once.” The prospect of lowering the Central Bank rate remains, which means that these investors have the opportunity to earn on the growth in the cost of bonds, he explains.

The Russian currency will be supported by the tax period. In particular, already on Monday, companies pay insurance premiums in the amount of more than 800 billion rubles.

According to Mikhail Vasiliev, the increased volume of sales of foreign exchange earnings by exporters for settlements with the budget “may lead the dollar exchange rate below the mark of 60 rubles / $.” In general, as Vladimir Evstifeev notes, in the medium term, the probability of the ruble weakening against the leading currencies by 10-15% looks high, but not one hundred percent.

Vitaly Gaidaev, Dmitry Ladygin