The dollar and the euro are losing rubles

The foreign exchange market has lost momentum, which was given to it by speculators against the backdrop of falling Russian exports. The exchange rate of the dollar, rising on Thursday to an eight-month high of 72.6 rubles/$, ended the day at a level lower than Wednesday’s close. The reversal of the exchange rate was facilitated by exporters, who, in anticipation of the payment of basic taxes, began to actively sell the currency. In the coming days, such sales may return the dollar to the level of 68 rubles / $, analysts say.

On Thursday, December 22, trading on the Moscow Exchange began with another sharp weakening of the ruble. Already during the morning session, the dollar exchange rate exceeded the level of 72 rubles / $, and by 12:40 it reached 72.63 rubles / $ – the maximum value since the end of April and by 1.64 rubles. higher than the previous day’s close. However, the exchange rate did not manage to stay at the achieved level for a long time, and by the end of the trading session it rolled back to the level of closing Tuesday – 68.95 rubles / $, having lost 2 rubles per day. The euro exchange rate during exchange trading reached a maximum since April 27, the mark of 77.11 rubles / €, but at the end of the session it stopped at 73.55 rubles / €, having lost 2.05 rubles per day.

Since the beginning of the week, the dollar exchange rate has grown by more than 12%, which was the strongest rise since the beginning of July, when against the backdrop of verbal interventions by officials about a possible return to the budget rule, the exchange rate rose by more than 23% in five days.

The current rise was caused by both fundamental and speculative reasons. In December, against the backdrop of the embargo on the supply of Russian oil, analysts expect a noticeable reduction in the trade surplus of the Russian Federation due to a decrease in exports and an increase in imports. “Seasonal and speculative factors also contributed to a noticeable acceleration in the weakening of the ruble, including the reduced risks of blocking unfriendly currencies in the eyes of investors after the disclosure of details of the latest sanctions packages,” said Viktor Grigoriev, an analyst at the Financial Markets Directorate at Bank Saint Petersburg.

Market participants note that the speculative game to raise foreign exchange rates could not have been so successful if it were not for the passivity of exporters, who, despite the beginning of the tax period, withheld foreign exchange earnings. According to Zenit Bank, by December 26, companies must transfer 1.4 trillion rubles to the budget. in the form of payments for VAT, MET and excises. “It could have been a smart tactical game against the backdrop of the observed high demand, which allows exporters to get attractive levels for selling foreign currency,” says Mikhail Shulgin, head of the global research department at Otkritie Investments.

And on Thursday, after updating a multi-month high, exporters entered the market with a currency offer. “Probably, the level of 72.5 rubles / $ is considered by exporters as attractive for converting foreign exchange earnings in anticipation of tax payments,” says Polina Khvoynitskaya, head of investment strategy and analytics at Expobank. According to Mr. Shulgin, in the second half of the day the dollar was traded for a record volume for many months (about 33 billion rubles in one hour), after which the rate reversed. The effect of the sale of foreign exchange earnings could be enhanced by the closing of short positions by speculators.

At the end of the day, the volume of trading in dollars with delivery “tomorrow” exceeded 181 billion rubles, which is 1.5 times higher than the previous day and the maximum result since May 30.

The volume of trading with the yuan reached 163 billion rubles, setting a new high. The trading volume of the euro did not exceed 37 billion rubles, being lower than Wednesday.

In the coming days, the supply of foreign currency from exporters will increase, which will support the Russian currency, analysts say. However, they are not laid down for significant strengthening. “There is a small chance of a return to the level of 68 rubles / $,” Polina Khvoynitskaya estimates. According to Sovcombank chief analyst Mikhail Vasiliev, at the end of the year the dollar will return to the range of 68–71 rubles/$, but in the first quarter of next year it may drop to 65–70 rubles/$. “At the beginning of the year, the seasonality of the current account will already be in favor of the ruble. Demand for foreign currency for imports and tourism will fall, and oil prices are likely to remain high in the winter,” Mr. Vasiliev notes.

Vitaly Gaidaev