The damper does not smell – Newspaper Kommersant No. 4 (7449) dated 01/12/2023

According to the results of 2022, Russian air carriers will receive record compensation from the budget as part of the jet fuel damper, which may exceed 100 billion rubles. Together with the reverse excise tax on jet fuel, fuel subsidies for the industry will exceed the anti-crisis assistance provided by the government in 2022 to support passenger traffic. However, airlines fear a reduction in damper payments in 2023 due to a planned change in the formula for calculating the subsidy.

Air carriers will receive about 100 billion rubles. from the budget at the end of 2022 as a partial compensation for the cost of jet fuel, analysts polled by Kommersant calculated. We are talking about a damper: under this mechanism, carriers are compensated for 65% of the difference between the export cost of kerosene and its fixed wholesale price in the Russian Federation (55.9 thousand per ton in 2022).

According to Petromarket, in 2022, on average, airlines consumed 450,000 tons of kerosene filled at Russian airports every month. Thus, for the whole year, companies can receive 95.4 billion rubles. in the form of damper payments for jet fuel. In addition, another 16.3 billion rubles. airlines will receive in the form of a reverse excise tax on kerosene (set at 2.8 thousand rubles per ton), Konstantin Kvon, senior consultant at Petromarket IG, points out.

According to the calculations of transport analyst Elena Sakhnova, carriers are entitled to 118 billion rubles only for the damper. March was a record month, when against the backdrop of a sharp weakening of the ruble against the dollar and an increase in the price of kerosene in Europe, payments amounted to 20 billion rubles. In April, compensation decreased to 12 billion rubles. and by the end of summer – up to 11 billion rubles. per month, in the autumn months, the payment was reduced from 8 billion to 5 billion rubles. The lowest damper receipts occurred in December (RUB 4 billion) due to lower oil prices. According to the FAS, the export alternative for kerosene, which is used to calculate the damper, fell to 68 thousand rubles in December. per ton against 71.5 thousand rubles. in November and 142 thousand rubles. at its peak in March.

Thus, the damper payments turned out to be more than the anti-crisis subsidy to airlines in the amount of 100 billion rubles. and are comparable to the total amount of federal subsidies to airlines in 2022 (146.8 billion rubles, including 19.5 billion rubles of compensation for canceled flights).

The jet fuel damper was introduced in August 2019, but the mechanism started working only from September 2021, when the export price of fuel exceeded the conditional average price level in the domestic market. In September-December 2021, carriers received only about 8 billion rubles. by damper. Wholesale prices for jet fuel in Russia in 2022 increased by about 20%, to 69.5 thousand rubles. per ton, according to the SPIMEX exchange.

The level of the conditional internal price increases by 5% annually and has increased to 58.7 thousand rubles since 2023. per ton, which will reduce the amount of damper compensation. In 2021, the AEVT was asked to fix the domestic price in the damper formula, but the government did not support this. The proposal is still considered relevant in Aeroflot. “We believe that the planned increase in the threshold value by 5% seems excessive, in the current conditions it is advisable to maintain the damper level for 2022 and 2023,” the company told Kommersant. It is essential that the damper continue to protect airlines from expensive jet fuel going forward, especially in times of high price volatility, the company said, acknowledging that “the mechanism provided significant support to the industry during the 2022 kerosene price surge.” Earlier, Kommersant’s sources in the group stressed that fuel costs account for a third of the cost of transportation.

Smartavia said the damper compensation remains relevant in 2023 as “a counterbalance to jet fuel prices continuing to hit all-time highs.” Other companies refrained from making official comments, but some interlocutors specifically emphasized that the size of the damper subsidy in 2022 should be considered “in comparison with rising costs for both fuel and other items of expenditure.” And Elena Sakhnova recalls that the damper compensates for only two-thirds of the increase in jet fuel prices.

Aigul Abdullina