The cybersecurity market may grow by 15–20% by the end of the year, to 254 billion rubles

The growth of the cybersecurity market by the end of 2023 could be 15–20%, and its volume could reach 254 billion rubles, TAdviser calculated. Market participants among the drivers of its growth mention the need to counter more complex cyber attacks and carry out import substitution. However, according to experts, it is mainly companies and public sector institutions that are now ready to increase spending on this.

Kommersant got acquainted with the forecast of the information and analytical portal TAdviser on the cybersecurity market, from which it follows that by the end of 2023 its volume (development of solutions and provision of specialized services) could grow by 15–20%, to 244–254 billion rubles. At the end of 2022, the company estimated the market at 212 billion rubles. with a growth of 10% by 2021.

TAdviser also presented an annual ranking of the largest companies in the industry. Data from over 150 Russian vendors and integrators developing products in the field of cybersecurity and providing related services were reviewed. The leader of the rating was Kaspersky Lab, its revenue at the end of 2022 amounted to 51.5 billion rubles. (the amount is converted into rubles at the weighted average dollar exchange rate). The second position is held by Softline (RUB 23.4 billion). Third place was taken by BI.ZONE (formerly part of Sberbank) with revenue of 17.2 billion rubles, which displaced Rostelecom from third place (at the end of 2022 it took fifth place with revenue of 14.4 billion rubles).

TAdviser notes that this year “the rush demand for domestic products has ended.” But nevertheless, hacker activity is not decreasing, but is moving into other, more dangerous forms for companies: “From simple DDoS attacks and ransomware, attackers are moving to espionage campaigns with the theft of valuable data and the sale of credentials for access to corporate infrastructure.” As a result, the budgets allocated by businesses for information security have in most cases increased and now amount to up to 7% of total IT costs, analysts note. According to Kaspersky Lab data from February, large businesses spend about $375 thousand a year on cybersecurity, while small and medium businesses spend only $38 thousand.

The Center for Strategic Research presented estimates of the cybersecurity market in mid-summer: analysts calculated that in 2022 the market as a whole (products and services) in Russia increased by 4%, to 193.3 billion rubles; according to their forecast, by 2027 the figure may amount to 559 billion rubles. with an average annual growth of 24% (see Kommersant on July 31).

The market is showing growth against the backdrop of a low base of cybersecurity spending until 2022, says Vladislav Onishchenko, CEO of the Agency for Transformation and Economic Development. Informzashita expects market growth at the end of the year at 15%. “Over the year, quite a few Russian alternatives to foreign solutions have appeared, vendors have “pulled up the functionality” of their products, and the growth in demand is shown by services in the field of cybersecurity – services of monitoring and response centers, testing of information systems, etc.,” says the company’s leading analyst Elena Rukhlova. Also, demand will support the growth of cyber attacks: in the second quarter of 2023, their number increased by 17% year-on-year, according to Positive Technologies.

“Almost half of cybersecurity products are aimed at the public sector, since regulatory measures for the transition to domestic products are aimed primarily at it,” says Natalya Nazarova, director of the Institute for Entrepreneurship and Economic Development. However, about 20% of attacks occur on medium and small businesses, she notes.

In turn, representatives of large businesses are skeptical about the prospects for a further increase in information security costs. As Alexander Kirillov, Adviser to the General Director for Information of Severstal Group, said at the “Data Protection” conference on October 23, at the moment companies are more acutely faced with the issue of import substitution in general, which requires large expenses, which sometimes forces information protection tasks to be relegated to the background . He also noted that so far there are almost no certified Russian solutions for infrastructure of companies of this size.

Tatiana Isakova