The cost of construction of all types of commercial real estate has increased significantly by the end of 2023

The cost of construction of all types of commercial real estate at the end of 2023 showed a serious increase – by 15-30%. This is largely due to the acute labor shortage. The current situation has already led to a reduction in new construction of warehouse and office space. Market participants expect continued growth in costs, which could lead to the curtailment of a number of new projects.

In 2023, the cost of construction of logoparks increased by 19% year-on-year, to 55 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, excluding the purchase of land and engineering structures with official inflation of 7.42%, follows from a joint study by IBC Real Estate and Orientir Group of Companies. As a result, consultants emphasize, construction costs exceeded even the peak values ​​of 2021, when the construction of warehouse facilities cost developers 51 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m.

IBC Real Estate emphasizes that, despite the forecasts made by the Ministry of Economy in April 2023 about a slowdown in producer inflation, by the end of last year there was a significant increase in the indicator, which affected the cost of building materials. According to consultants’ calculations, materials for the construction of logoparks increased in price by 11% year-on-year, to 33 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m.

Manufacturers of building materials themselves, in turn, cite rising costs of logistics and resources. TechnoNIKOL CEO Anatoly Nesterov says that in 2023, gas silicate blocks increased in price by 27% year-on-year, tongue-and-groove slabs by 18%, plasterboard by 17%, and dry building mixtures by 11%. He explains this by an increase in gas tariffs by 17% and electricity by 18%, as well as an increase in the cost of logistics by 50%.

But the most significant impact on the increase in the cost of building warehouses was the increase in the cost of work by 26% year-on-year, to 22 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. This is due to a labor shortage, explains Evgeniy Bumagin, member of the board of directors of IBC Real Estate. According to Rosstat, in 2023, unemployment in the Russian Federation reached its lowest level since 1992 – 3.2%.

Developers of all segments of commercial real estate are faced with a serious increase in the costs of constructing such facilities.

In 2023, the cost of creating business centers increased by 20–30% per year, to 118 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, calculated the partner “Ricci | Consulting and assessment” Yana Kuzin.

Costs for the construction of shopping centers also increased by 15%, says Lyubov Shiptur, head of the ADG Group project office. According to Ms. Kuzina, the cost of construction of shopping centers is 115 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, hotels – 166 thousand rubles. Turnkey, that is, with finishing and equipment, the construction of hotels, business centers and shopping centers reaches more than 300 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, warehouse space – about 200 thousand rubles, says the general director of the Smart Engineers Group of Companies, Hussein Pliev.

Unsatisfied demand in the logopark segment already exceeds supply due to the ongoing restructuring of supply chains by Russian businesses, which forces, for example, retailers to increase inventory, which requires additional space, says Orientir Group CEO Andrei Postnikov. There is also a high demand for new high-quality space in the office market, adds Pioneer Analytics Director Ekaterina Petrova.

In 2024, the growth in production costs will be influenced by the labor shortage, says Stanislav Sagiryan, general director of RKS Development. He notes that the lack of workers, in turn, leads to longer project completion times.

Some players may adjust their plans, delaying the launch of new projects, but this will not be widespread, Ms. Petrova expects. The high key rate of the Central Bank will also create obstacles to the launch of new facilities, including the implementation of built-to-suit projects (for a specific customer), Andrei Postnikov believes.

Another prerequisite for further growth in costs may be high construction activity, which is expected in the office and warehouse segments in 2024, says Vasily Grigoriev, director of the market research department at CORE.XP. According to his calculations, three times more business centers will be completed in Moscow than a year earlier—800–900 thousand square meters. m, and in the Russian Federation logopark market, commissioning is expected to increase by 31%, to 4 million sq. m. m.

Daria Andrianova, Alexandra Mertsalova