The commissioning of warehouses is growing due to the new light industrial format

The active construction of light industrial warehouses – facilities within the city – has become one of the factors contributing to the increase in the supply of logistics real estate. In the first quarter of 2024, the volume of delivered space in Russia increased by 15.4%, which has not happened in the last nine years. However, not all areas of the new format are becoming in demand. In the near future, the demand for light industrial will be satisfied, after which interest in such objects will begin to decline, market participants warn.

In the first quarter of 2024, 780 thousand square meters were commissioned in Russia. m of warehouse space, which is 15.4% more year-on-year, was calculated by IBC Real Estate. These figures were the highest since 2015, analysts add. According to their data, 49.9% of completed objects, or 389 thousand square meters. m, falls on Moscow and the Moscow region.

IBC Real Estate predicts that for the entire 2024, 3.8 million square meters will be commissioned in Russia. m of warehouses, of which 2 million sq. m will have to be in Moscow and the region. These figures are higher year-on-year by 5.6% and 11%, respectively. Nikoliers says that in Russia in January-March of this year, 683 thousand square meters were commissioned. m, of which 46% are in Moscow and the Moscow region. The company predicts that a total of 5.8 million square meters will be commissioned throughout the country this year. m of warehouses, but they warn that some of them may be postponed until next year.

Director of the warehouse and industrial real estate department at Nikoliers, Viktor Afanasenko, attributes the growth in the volume of leased space to both the commissioning of several large distribution centers for grocery chains and the development of a relatively new format – light industrial. These are small production and warehouse premises, often located within the city. This format, according to IBC Real Estate, will account for 13.5% (270 thousand sq. m) of the total volume of warehouses under construction in Moscow and the region by the end of 2024; in the first quarter, the figure reached 57%. Over the year, the share of light industrial will increase by 5.1 percentage points. Mr. Afanasenko believes that such facilities will account for 19% of all premises that will be put into operation.

Consultants call this segment the fastest growing in the warehouse market. Although IBC Real Estate notes that light industrial plays a significant role so far only in the Moscow market, only one facility with an area of ​​3 thousand square meters was commissioned in St. Petersburg this year. m. According to NF Group partner Konstantin Fomichenko, in Moscow, interest in implementing the format is mainly shown by housing developers, for example the PIK group. According to the calculations of the director of Ricci | Warehouses” by Dmitry Gerastovsky, such developers account for 16% of all light industrial projects.

General Director of Orientir Group of Companies Elena Babenko notes that light industrial projects face the standard risk for speculative warehouses: “In the near future, current demand will be satisfied, but in the future interest in them will decrease.” According to RRG data, the average vacancy rate for projects of this format in Moscow is now 4%. Evgeny Bumagin, head of the department for working with warehouse and industrial premises at IBC Real Estate, says that according to the results of the first quarter in Moscow and the region, only 0.7% of warehouses of all formats, or 197 thousand square meters, were empty. m, while a year ago – 2.3%.

The average rental rate in the Moscow warehouse market, according to IBC Real Estate, increased over the year by 66%, to 9.7 thousand rubles. per square meter per year. But the potential for further growth is limited: by the end of 2024, the rate will reach 10 thousand rubles, analysts predict. The high cost of lending limits the ability of companies to buy warehouse space, notes Mr. Bumagin. Deputy Director of the Strategic Consulting Department at RRG Ivan Podkova adds that developers, in turn, due to the high cost of borrowed funds, are reducing activity in the speculative construction of warehouses, focusing only on the implementation of projects for specific customers.

Alexandra Mertsalova