The coffee market has been invigorated by forecasts – Kommersant FM
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Coffee prices may rise due to drought in Brazil. The largest coffee producer risks harvesting less Robusta beans, Bloomberg writes. It’s all about the lack of rain and above-average temperatures that have settled in key coffee-producing provinces. Because of this, production volumes may be 15-20% less than originally expected, the agency’s interlocutors say.
If the forecast comes true, only 20 million bags will be collected, which will be the lowest figure since 2020. First of all, this will affect the prices of instant coffee, Bloomberg summarizes. How justified are such data? And what will happen to prices in Russia? The general director of the K-Grand company, Alexander Borisov, does not rule out that coffee will begin to rise in price:
“Brazil, as the largest supplier, determines the situation on the coffee market. There is another opinion that in Vietnam, which produces a huge amount of robusta, the harvest is not very successful. If the indicators drop by 10-15%, this will cause a shortage. Of course, if this happens, the price of Robusta will increase. But at the same time, the price of Arabica will increase, since Robusta and Arabica products are always mixed.
The approximate increase in cost for the consumer will be at the level of 15-20%. That’s the most we can say. In the case of instant coffee, this will not be so noticeable. And if the price of the mixture rises, then the price in the HoReCa segment, in coffee machines, will increase, and the consumer will feel the difference much more strongly. Conventionally, ten cups of instant coffee will become more expensive than one cup of ground coffee.”
The exchange price of coffee rose by 5% after reports of problems in Brazil. January futures at auction in London exceeded $2.7 thousand per ton. The coffee market primarily depends on quotes, and it is premature to talk about a real negative effect, says Ramaz Chanturia, general director of the Roschaykofe association:
“I wouldn’t scare anyone with any scenarios at this stage. The coffee market is a stock market. It is influenced by many factors. In addition to the balance of supply and demand, there are also speculative stories. Certain informational reasons are used both to increase quotes and to lower them.
You need to take this very calmly. Firstly, because nothing has happened yet, these are just forecasts. Secondly, when the price increase occurs, it will in any case have a delayed effect on consumer markets, such as Russia, for at least six months.”
Meanwhile, Russians began to drink more coffee than tea. According to statistics from the Doctis telemedicine service, now more than half of the country’s citizens drink coffee every day.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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