The Central Bank improved the forecast for the profit of Russian banks in 2023 from 1.5 trillion rubles. up to 2 trillion rubles

According to the results of 2023, the banking sector in Russia can earn over 2 trillion rubles. in the absence of new shocks, follows from forecast Bank of Russia. In the March forecast of the Central Bank expectedthat the profit of Russian banks at the end of the year will be about 1.5 trillion rubles.

“The main reasons for the change in the forecast are a significant margin (the annual forecast was raised to 4.3-4.5%) and high actual indicators at the beginning of the year (1.1 trillion rubles over four months), including due to currency revaluation amid weakening ruble,” the regulator said in a press release.

The Bank of Russia also raised its lending growth forecast from 8-12% to 9-13%, taking into account the strong performance in the first quarter (+2.8%) and April (+1.7%). The regulator increased the mortgage lending growth forecast range by one percentage point to 13-17%, while consumer lending is expected to grow at 9-13%.

Companies’ funds this year may increase by 13-17%. According to the previous forecast, growth was expected at the level of 12-16%. At the same time, the forecast for the growth of household funds has not changed since the previous time and amounted to 8-12%.

At the end of May, Director of the Banking Regulation and Analytics Department of the Bank of Russia Alexander Danilov declaredthat the Central Bank may raise the forecast for the net profit of the banking sector. In January-April 2023, banks have already earned 1.1 trillion rubles, follows from the review (.pdf) on the development of the banking sector, published on 31 May. According to the results of the first four months of 2023, the number of profitable banks amounted to 265, that is, over 80% of the number of players. At the same time, in April, the net profit of banks decreased by a third compared to the previous month, to 224 billion rubles.

Read more about the financial performance of the banking sector – in the material “Kommersant” “It was, but it has arrived again”.

Erdni Kagaltynov