The Central Bank does not see major transactions in the foreign exchange market that can affect the ruble exchange rate
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The first deputy chairman of the Bank of Russia, Ksenia Yudaeva, said that the regulator does not record major transactions in the foreign exchange market that could affect the ruble exchange rate. According to her, the depreciation of the Russian currency is mainly caused by a change in the trade balance. “Prime”. Today, July 4, in the middle of the day, the euro on the Moscow Exchange exceeded RUB 98/€ for the first time since March 29, 2022. The dollar exceeded 90 rubles/$.
“We define the main factors in the same way as before – this is the trade balance. A couple of days ago, data on the balance of payments were published, we see a significant reduction in the current balance compared to last year,” Ms. Yudaeva told reporters.
The fall in the trade balance is connected, according to the deputy chairman of the Central Bank, with a reduction in export earnings due to lower prices for raw materials. At the same time, import indicators are recovering against the background of the growth of the Russian economy, she said. Ms. Yudaeva stressed that over the past year and a half, the leading market in the foreign exchange sector has become the yuan, while the liquidity of the dollar and euro has decreased.
In addition, the Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia said that the regulator does not see the risk that inflation by the end of the year will greatly go beyond the range of 4.5-6.5%. In her opinion, there are no risks of reducing financial stability in the country. Mrs. Yudaeva also sees no need to return the obligation to sell foreign exchange earnings for exporters.
On February 28, 2022, the Central Bank ordered exporters to sell 80% of foreign exchange earnings under foreign trade agreements within three working days from the date of receipt. In May, the requirement was reduced to 50%, and on February 6 this year, the measure was canceled. The Bank of Russia resorted to it due to the fact that it lost the opportunity to conduct foreign exchange interventions due to the freezing of part of the gold and foreign exchange reserves abroad.
June 30, the press service of Magnit statedthat the preparation of the company for a deal to buy back its own shares from non-residents blocked on the Moscow Exchange could not affect the sharp depreciation of the ruble. The retailer assured that it has enough currency to buy shares. TASS noted that analysts named several possible reasons for the weakening of the ruble, among which is additional demand for foreign currency due to the buyout of shares by Magnit.
In June, the dollar rose by 10%, the euro – by 13%. The sharp depreciation of the ruble, in particular, bind and with internal political upheavals: the exchange rate began to decline against the backdrop of an armed rebellion by PMC Wagner on June 23-24. On the night of June 23-24, banks sharply raised the selling prices of foreign currencies, in the morning they exceeded exchange rates for the dollar and euro by 1013 rubles. and 1214 rubles. respectively.
According to analysts interviewed “b”the negative external economic situation plays against the ruble, associated with a decrease in the inflow of foreign currency into the country, which does not compensate for the increase in import operations, as well as the demand for foreign currency from the population and foreign companies selling their business in Russia.
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