The ceiling is pressing on the ruble – Newspaper Kommersant No. 17 (7462) of 01/31/2023

The exchange rate of the dollar after a three-week break returned above the level of 70 rubles/$. Strengthened positions against the Russian currency euro and yuan. Against the backdrop of a reduction in demand for rubles from exporters, as well as the imminent introduction of an embargo on Russian oil products, investors are gradually increasing their investments in foreign currency.

On Monday, January 30, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange after a three-week break returned above the level of 70 rubles/$. At the same time, the confident strengthening of the American currency did not happen immediately: during the morning session and in the first hours of the main trading session, the rate was near the Friday close level (69.46 rubles/$). The situation deteriorated sharply in the afternoon. By 16:00, the dollar exchange rate for the first time since January 11 exceeded the level of 70 rubles/$, and at the close of trading it amounted to 70.4 rubles/$. This result is almost 1 rub. exceeded Friday’s close. The exchange rate of the European currency rose by 1.1 rubles to 76.6 rubles/€, the highest since January 9. A three-week high was also updated by the Chinese yuan, which exceeded 10.4 rubles/CNY.

At the same time, the weakening of the Russian currency took place without any obvious excitement on the part of investors. The volume of trading with the dollar for tomorrow delivery amounted to less than 65 billion rubles, which is 15% lower than the previous day’s result.

With the euro, trading volume barely exceeded 42 billion rubles, which is comparable to Friday’s figure. According to Mikhail Shulgin, head of the global research department at Otkritie Investments, low trading volumes in major currencies are associated with seasonally low demand for them from importers and a decrease in the supply of exporters’ currency against the backdrop of a decrease in export earnings.

First of all, the rates were affected by the end of the tax period. “In connection with the transition to a single tax account from January 1, 2023, taxes must be paid no later than the 28th day of each month. Since January 28 is a public holiday, taxes will be paid on Monday, January 30,” the SberCIB Investment Research report says.

According to analysts, on Monday, exporters completed the payment of 0.6-0.7 trillion rubles. MET and income tax.

The completion of the payment of basic taxes deprived the ruble of short-term support, leaving the national currency face to face with the low cost of Russian oil and the introduction of restrictions on petroleum products by the EU, said Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank. The US and Europe are working on two price ceilings for Russian oil products – $100 per barrel for diesel fuel and $45 per barrel for fuel oil. Price limits will come into force on February 5, along with the European embargo on imports of Russian oil products. Expectations of a further decline in the country’s oil and gas revenues are already putting pressure on the ruble exchange rate, says Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank.

The decrease in the supply of foreign exchange by exporters partly offsets the supply of foreign exchange under the updated fiscal rule. But sales volumes of the Chinese currency are small and amount to about 3.2 billion rubles. in a day.

In addition, as Mikhail Shulgin notes, the Bank of Russia did not sell yuan last week because of the Chinese New Year holidays. He does not rule out that this week the regulator will return to sales of the yuan and compensate for the temporary downtime of last week, which will contain the weakening of the ruble.

However, the influence of this factor will be limited, so the weakening of the ruble may continue. According to Vladimir Evstifeev, the short-term dynamics of the ruble will be moderately negative, and the dollar will shift to the range of 70-73 rubles/$. The decision of the Fed may have a negative impact. Mikhail Vasiliev does not rule out that the US regulator will raise the key rate by 25 bp. to 4.75%, and maintain tough rhetoric to fight inflation. “This may have a negative impact on the demand for risky assets in the world, lead to a strengthening of the dollar in the global market and put pressure on commodity prices, including oil and gas,” Mr. Vasiliev believes.

Vitaly Gaidaev