The cars slowed down the descent – Newspaper Kommersant No. 161 (7362) of 09/02/2022
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Loading on the network of Russian Railways continues to decline, but the rate of decline is slowing down for the third month in a row. In August, the gap from 2021 was 5% against 6.5% in June, and in general for eight months – 3.4%. The main decline still falls on the most massive cargo – coal, shipments of which decreased by 6.7% in August, but the pace has slowed down significantly since June. However, most traffic remains in the red zone and experts are accelerating the deterioration of the situation towards the end of the year.
The decline in loading on the network of Russian Railways continues to slow down. In August, the monopoly transported 103.6 million tons of cargo, which is 5% less than a year earlier. In total, in January-August, 820.5 million tons of cargo were transported, which is 3.4% less than a year earlier. Loading grew in January-February, in March it began to decline, which increased until June, when it reached 6.5%, and then the pace began to decline. In July, the fall was 5.5%.
As before, the main reduction in loading in mass terms falls on the main cargo on the network – coal, although the catastrophic lag behind last year in its loading is reduced. In August, it amounted to 6.7%, approaching April’s figures (minus 6.1%), while in June, the most disastrous month in terms of coal transportation, the backlog was 11.8%.
In August, coal managed to catch up with 2017, although there is no question of repeating the records of 2018, 2019 and 2021.
Coal loading is now below the indicators of the covid 2020, although it exceeded them until June. For eight months, 232.2 million tons of coal were loaded, which is 5.7%, or 13.9 million tons, less than a year earlier.
Loading of oil and oil products in August amounted to 17.7 million tons, which is 2.7% less than a year earlier. At the same time, in January-August, it even shows some increase by 2021 (plus 0.1%) and has been consistently above 2020 levels since April.
The largest share decrease in August was shown by timber (by 31.4%), industrial cargo (by 24.2%) and coke (by 20%). The loading of fertilizers, cement, non-ferrous metal ores, chemicals and soda remains in the red zone.
Scrap and grain loading showed zero growth in August, but the eight-month figures are noticeably behind 2021, by 19.6% and 10.2%, respectively. Since the beginning of the year, the growth in the loading of ferrous metals (by 0.6%) and construction cargo (by 3.2%) has intensified due to an increase in the volume of shipments in August by 2.2% and 6.2%, respectively. According to Russian Railways, loading is steadily increasing at the Eastern range – on the East Siberian (plus 1.9% in January-August), Transbaikal (plus 3.3%), Far Eastern railways (plus 5.9%).
According to Mikhail Burmistrov, head of Infoline-Analytics, the results of August are generally positive, the situation with loading could be much worse. It is expected that construction cargo has become the locomotive of growth – now there are many government construction projects, he recalls, including taking into account the allocation of additional funds, the construction of the M-12 highway will be completed ahead of schedule. The situation with the loading of coal has improved, he notes, which indicates an improvement in the network. There is a slowdown in the decline in the loading of chemical and mineral fertilizers, which is important given the difficult situation in the ports of the North-West, as well as a positive trend in scrap and metals.
Mr. Burmistrov notes that the situation is developing against the backdrop of serious pressure on exporters because of the strong ruble, and this effect will increase.
“The maximum stability that the economy could show is already showing,” the expert says, believing that the situation will worsen.
The situation on the world markets for coal is still favorable, he notes, but exporters cannot take full advantage of it because of the difficult situation at the Eastern landfill and at the entrances to the terminal in Taman. According to Mikhail Burmistrov, the decrease in loading will amount to 5.3-7%, cargo turnover – about 0.5% for the year.
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