The cards did not work out – Newspaper Kommersant No. 16 (7461) dated 01/30/2023

In December, 1.81 million credit cards worth 160.9 billion rubles were issued in Russia. The segment has been at this level for four months already, and in 2023 it is not worth counting on the growth in issuance, market participants and experts believe. Against the backdrop of regulatory restrictions on the level of debt burden and the implementation of the deferred consequences of the 2022 crisis in the segment, an increase in delinquency can be expected, while creditors will reduce approved checks.

According to the BCI “Scoring Bureau”, which Kommersant got acquainted with, in December 1.81 million credit cards were issued for 160.9 billion rubles. The figures have been holding at these levels since September, showing fluctuations of a few percent. At the same time, the average limit on credit cards in December amounted to 88.8 thousand rubles. The indicator has been growing since August 2022, follows from the materials of the Scoring Bureau.

The surveyed banks at the end of the year confirm the growth of the credit card portfolio. At Rosbank, it increased by 32% (excluding overdraft), says Natalya Zubenko, head of the bank’s credit card center. VTB’s portfolio in the credit card segment grew by 9% over the year, the bank said. PSB increased its credit card portfolio by 35% in 2022, says Rustem Aminov, head of the card products department at PSB.

The issuance of credit cards in 2022 in “some part really received support from the unsatisfied demand for standard consumer loans” (see “Kommersant” dated January 24), Yuri Belikov, Managing Director of Expert RA, believes the growing trend in the market. “Decisions on applications for ordinary consumer loans (for example, cash loans) are basically binary – approval or refusal,” he explains. “On credit cards, you can adjust the limit to the solvency of the borrower, including during the validity period of the card.” Therefore, for banks, this loan product can be convenient in terms of the “frontier” client base – in relation to those borrowers whose creditworthiness cannot be assessed as high, but who do not show actual delinquencies at the time, the expert adds.

At the same time, collectors warn that credit cards remain the most high-risk segment of the market. At the end of the year, the number of cards with overdue debts reached 3.5 million, Elman Mehdiyev, President of SRO NAPCA, cites data. Against this background, the weakening of scoring is not worth waiting for. “In the future, scoring requirements will depend on the economic situation, individual players may have targeted relaxation of the risk policy against the background of their plans for the dynamics of issuing credit cards,” VTB notes.

In 2023, bankers expect moderate growth in the credit card market, and do not expect an increase in average checks at all. “Despite the migration of some borrowers from the cash loans segment to the credit card segment, such problems as the increase in the average debt burden of borrowers over the past three years and the stagnation of their real disposable incomes are common and fundamental. In addition, due to the introduction of the macroprudential limits of the regulator, the level of approval for the most indebted borrowers will fall,” says Mr. Belikov. As a result, the average check on the market will decrease, the expert believes.

It is much more difficult to predict the dynamics of issuance in pieces, Mr. Belikov clarifies, they can grow with a significant decrease in the average check. According to Mr. Aminov, the credit card market may increase by about 20-30% for the portfolio. “The dynamics of the market is very dependent on the external economic and political landscape, now no one dares to predict more than one or two months,” says Anna Stognienko, project leader of Frank RG. ahead of the income growth of the population.

Polina Trifonova