The car loan market in August showed a decline for the first time in ten months

The car loan market was unable to maintain record growth rates and in August showed a decline of 5% for the first time in ten months. Citizens were in a hurry to satisfy the demand for cars in the first summer months, and after increasing the recycling fee and the key rate, they reduced their activity, experts say. Against the background of the expectation of a further increase in car prices, market participants do not expect a repetition of high results until the end of the year.

From the materials of Frank RG, it follows that at the end of August, the car lending segment showed a decrease for the first time since October 2022 (see “Kommersant” dated May 11 and July 31). Compared to the previous month, in monetary terms, the drop was 5%, to 157.1 billion rubles, the number of loans issued decreased by 6%, to 106.9 thousand.

In annual comparison, the growth remained significant – 80% in quantitative terms and 125% in monetary terms. Moreover, the figure for August was higher than even in the industry-record year 2021. Two years ago, 91.5 thousand car loans were issued for a total amount of 103.5 billion rubles, follows from the materials of Frank RG.

Demand for car loans remains quite high, both bankers and experts admit, but the peak of disbursements this year has clearly passed. According to the BCI “Scoring Bureau”, since the beginning of the year, the total cost of a car loan on average in the market has been at the level of 16.5-17% per annum. Against the backdrop of a tightening of monetary policy since August 15, interest rates in the segment have increased, says Yegor Lopatin, Deputy Director of the Group of Ratings of Financial Institutions of the NKR Agency.

Banks confirm the growth of rates by 1-3 percentage points, depending on the conditions of the program. In addition, the slowdown in the dynamics of issuance in August may be due to an increase in recycling fees since August 1, which led to an increase in prices, said Alina Davletova, a leading analyst for bank ratings at the Expert RA agency.

“At the beginning of summer, buyers expected a noticeable increase in car prices due to the weakening of the ruble and an increase in salvage fees, so they rushed to buy a car before the end of July. In the first two months of summer, active demand was mostly satisfied, and in August the expected price increase was realized,” explains Dmitry Maslov, Managing Director of Expobank. “A decrease in consumer demand is quite expected. In August, we received 6% fewer applications than in July,” says Marina Dembitskaya, head of Otkritie Avto (auto business unit of Otkritie Bank).

In general, in the market, the growth of interest in car loans in August amounted to 6%, said Alexei Gribkov, director for development of the banking direction of the Sravni.ru financial marketplace. However, according to him, the demand was not realized in the issued loans.

“An assessment of the market dynamics until the end of the year can only be given after a detailed assessment of the effect of the recent increase in the key rate and the possible tightening of the interest rate policy of the Central Bank in the future,” notes Svyatoslav Ostrovsky, member of the VTB Board. quarter to the third.

At the same time, against the backdrop of the expectation of another increase in the key rate, those who were late to the “July boom” may try to meet demand, admits Alexander Vasiliev, senior manager of the automotive industry group of DRT. “Automakers and dealers are interested in maintaining attractive conditions for lending programs, as they help support sales,” adds Vyacheslav Yakubchik, head of the department for the development of partnership programs and strategic segments at Rosbank Auto.

However, the shortage of cars in the primary market remains, despite the establishment of production and production of domestic brands, as well as the active expansion of Chinese automakers. “And by the end of the year, car prices may rise by another 5-7% in all segments,” Ms. Dembitskaya expects. Therefore, according to her, in the coming months, “the market will see a decrease in car sales and car loan disbursements.”

Polina Trifonova