The budget is filled with oil – Newspaper Kommersant No. 66 (7511) of 04/17/2023

Last week, the ruble price of Russian oil Urals for the first time in eight months rose above the level of 5 thousand rubles. per barrel. Over the month, the price has grown by almost one and a half times, both due to the rise in dollar prices and the depreciation of the Russian currency. If ruble prices remain at the current level until the end of the year, the volume of lost oil revenues will decrease by 500 billion rubles, to 1 trillion rubles.

The ruble price of Urals for the first time since August last year rose above the level of 5 thousand rubles. per barrel. According to Profinance.ru, on Friday the quotes reached 5047 rubles. per barrel, which is almost 1.2% higher than Thursday’s close. Even taking into account the correction and price reduction by the close of trading to 5030 rubles. it is 3.2% higher than the values ​​of a week ago and almost one and a half times higher than the local minimum set a month earlier.

The update of the multi-month high is primarily due to the rise in dollar prices in the oil market. According to Investing.com, the price of North Sea oil on the spot market last week reached $87.5 per barrel, and at its end it was $86.6 per barrel, which is almost 2% higher than the closing value of the previous week. Russian Urals, according to Profinance, has risen by almost 40% over the month, to $61.5 per barrel.

The main growth factor is the decision of the OPEC+ countries to further reduce production from May (see Kommersant dated April 3). “Prices were supported by macro statistics last week: inflation in the US in March turned out to be no worse than expected, if there is an increase in the rate at the Fed meeting in May, then the market expects that it will be the last one, which means that the dollar may stop strengthening and oil for countries -importers will be more accessible,” notes Konstantin Samarin, Senior Analyst of the Equity Market Analysis Department at SberCIB Investment Research.

If the OPEC + plan is implemented to reduce production in the declared volume, oil prices may still rise, but the growth rate will be lower. Mr. Samarin doubts that in the near future the price of Brent will rise above $90 per barrel. He sees the main risks on the demand side – the risks of a recession in the US and Europe and the recovery of the Chinese economy at a rate lower than expected by the market. At the same time, Russian oil may continue to grow at a higher rate than Brent, which will lead to a narrowing of the spread between them. “As logistics channels adapt to the summer months, we may see a narrowing of the Russian oil price discount to $20 per barrel and below,” says Evgeny Koshelev, director of the Rosbank Market Research and Strategy Office.

However, even current oil prices will have a positive effect on the budget, which is based on the average Urals price of $70.1 per barrel and the average exchange rate of 68.3 rubles / $, since the current dollar exchange rate is higher than budgeted. On Friday, the US dollar closed at 81.8 rubles/$, up 17% from the end of the previous year and 5.4% up from the end of March. “If the ruble price of oil on average for the year remains slightly above 5 thousand rubles. per barrel, the shortfall in oil and gas revenues will be about 1 trillion rubles,” says Denis Popov, chief analyst at PSB. According to him, at a price of 4.9 thousand rubles. per barrel and a moderate decline in oil production, oil and gas revenues of the budget will not be fulfilled in the amount of 1-1.5 trillion rubles.

The recovery of oil and gas revenues will be facilitated not only by the narrowing of the spread between Urals and Brent, but also by the further depreciation of the ruble, both due to the continued outflow of capital and the restoration of imports, as well as due to a decrease in the supply of foreign currency under the budget rule. From April 7 to May 5, the Central Bank, as part of the budget rule, will sell Chinese currency for 3.7 billion rubles, for a total of 74.6 billion rubles. per month. Next month, Denis Popov predicts a more symbolic amount of yuan sales from the NWF – about 50 billion rubles. According to Evgeny Koshelev, sales may be reduced to 20 billion rubles. In addition, he does not rule out that in June the Ministry of Finance may switch to buying yuan. According to the budget rule, if the price of Urals exceeds the mark of $60 per barrel and recognizes this level for tax purposes (at the moment there is a stricter rule for calculating taxes based on a discount against Brent), the Ministry of Finance will have all the arguments for buying foreign currency into reserves, the expert concludes .

Vitaly Gaidaev