The ban on supplies from China could lead to shortages and higher prices for drones

The ban on the export of large civilian drones announced by the Chinese authorities from September 1 could lead to a surge in prices and a shortage of drones in the Russian Federation for several years, market participants and experts interviewed by Kommersant believe. The agricultural sector is especially vulnerable, where only Chinese technology is used so far. The prohibition can become sensitive for monitoring and geodesy. In the event of a complete ban on the supply of components and especially electric motors, which are not yet available in the Russian Federation, Kommersant’s interlocutors expect a significant increase in prices due to the inevitable search for gray import channels. However, a number of drone manufacturers see the Chinese ban as possible benefits for import substitution.

Export restrictions, announced on July 31 by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce in the interests of “the country’s national security,” will apply to civilian unmanned aerial vehicles that can be adapted for military purposes. The ban will affect drones weighing over 7 kg and flying for more than half an hour, as well as “equipment and some engines.” A detailed description of the restrictions has not yet been provided. It is assumed that they can come into force on September 1.

The decision of the Chinese authorities, from the point of view of Russian developers, “can only be welcomed,” says Gleb Babintsev, head of the Aeronext profile association.

If Chinese drones leave the Russian market, he believes, this will open up niches for Russian companies.

Almost exclusively Chinese technology, about 700-1000 drones weighing more than 30 kg, according to him, is used only in the agricultural sector. At the same time, according to him, flying sprayers have already begun to be produced by the companies Agrimax, Aeroglobe, T1 holding, and even heavy agro-UAVs from the Air Solutions Design Bureau fly. In other segments, in particular in the most popular monitoring, dependence on purchased drones is much weaker: “If supplies stop, Russian developers will be able to replace the required volume.”

UAVs have not yet been widely used in fertilizing fields, now they are mainly actively used to survey territories, confirms the president of the Russian Grain Union (RGU) Arkady Zlochevsky: “They help faster, cheaper and more efficiently than vehicles, fix the condition of fields, plant disease, vegetation problems. Farmers often own drones, he says, and affordability is key here.

Gleb Babintsev believes that even in the event of a ban on the supply of electric motors, Russian enterprises can replace them.

In particular, Androidnaya Tekhnika (Magnitogorsk) and Gorny-TsOT (Kemerovo) “launched the mass production of electric motors.” In addition, the Izhevsk company FINKO makes electric motors for its own needs, about 1 thousand units per year, which “costs them less than bringing them from China.”

This decision of the PRC authorities will not entail fatal consequences for any sector of the Russian unmanned industry, Nikita Danilov, the founder of Fly Dron from the NTI Aeronet, agrees.

“Parallel import worked, works and will continue to work,” he believes, noting that its structure by types of drones will not change much. But the prices for both imported components and the devices themselves on the Russian market will “grow somewhat”.

However, the complication of imports from China, say market participants, should “spur the process of import substitution.” If domestic developers “will not doze off”, parallel import of drones will not be required, says Alexei Semenov, Chairman of the Board of Geoscan Group of Companies.

The opposite opinion is shared by the founder of the RunAvia service Andrey Patrakov, who notes that the ban will not affect only the market of small amateur drones. First of all, geodetic works will suffer: to create topographic and orthophotomaps, rather heavy equipment equipped with cameras with good resolution is required. Also in urban long-term monitoring to fix events or law and order (including by the police and the Russian Guard), as well as in forest protection (Ministry of Emergency Situations), drones are used that can stay in the air for more than 30 minutes, they weigh an average of 10 kg. The DJI Mavic 3, popular in monitoring, weighs less than 1 kg and, according to the characteristics, can spend up to 45 minutes in the air without wind, but in reality, the use time usually does not exceed half an hour, the expert says. “It is physically impossible to make a maneuverable apparatus for continuous operation weighing less than 7 kg,” says Mr. Patrakov.

The maximum flight time used by developers, including the Matrice 300 RTK from DJI, is 55 minutes. As a top manager of one of the construction companies in St. Petersburg told Kommersant, this drone is used by them for laser scanning of an object under construction during the day to control the process and quickly identify problems. According to the interlocutor, there is no analogue known to him on the Russian market, “at least in this price segment.” RBI Group Vice President Mikhail Gushchin noted that drones for monitoring are more often used in the segments of mass and high-rise construction, while in the construction of business-class housing, drones are usually used to shoot advertising and panoramic materials.

More detrimental to Russian consumers and manufacturers could be a ban on the supply of components, says Andrey Patrakov: “Russian drones contain up to 90% of Chinese components, this is the main dependence.”

Such a restriction will lead to an increase in prices for final products: “We will get what happened in the automotive industry: a Chinese Moskvich with a Russian nameplate for a double price.” A “window of opportunity” for Russian manufacturers of UAS and equipment can be considered a positive moment, the expert says.

But to bring the existing experimental developments to serial deliveries, according to Andrey Patrakov, it will take from two to three to five years, depending on the type of UAS. Only a few companies are currently developing electric motors, and “whether the component base they use is Russian is a question.” The company “Transport of the Future” is engaged in the production of large-sized engines, but “there are no small and inexpensive motors.” In the event of strict compliance with export restrictions and a complete ban on the supply of Chinese engines in these few years, the market may experience a shortage of drones and even “stop production for a while,” he admits. But it seems more likely to him and other interlocutors of Kommersant that the development of channels of “gray and black imports with a multiple increase in prices” seems.

Aigul Abdullina