The average rate on deposits of the largest banks froze at 10.18% by the end of the first ten days of October

At the end of the first ten days of October, the average rate on deposits of the largest banks froze at 10.18%, remaining at the level of the end of September. Prior to this, the figure had been steadily increasing since mid-July. The current level is lower than it could be at the current Central Bank rate, experts say, but banks have taken a wait-and-see approach and are not interested in rising funding costs. Citizens, however, are also in no hurry to transfer funds even when attractive offers appear – in reality, no more than 20% of investors monitor changes in conditions.

The arithmetic average of the maximum rates of the ten largest banks by the end of the first ten days of October was 10.18%. Such data was published on October 13 by the Bank of Russia based on the results of monitoring the maximum interest rates of credit institutions that attract the largest volume of deposits from individuals. According to the regulator, in the third ten days of September the maximum rate was at the same level – 10.189%. Thus, the deposit rate has not shown any dynamics for almost a month.

The indicator has been constantly growing since the second ten days of July this year. The deposit rate showed its last slight increase in the third decade of last month, which was associated with the Central Bank’s decision on September 15 to raise the key rate by 100 bps. n, up to 13%. Then the average maximum deposit rates increased by 0.5 percentage points.

The banks themselves do not comment on the freezing of interest rates on deposits. At the same time, if you study the advertising offers of credit institutions, including on financial marketplaces, you can see that banks offer deposits at rates of up to 14% per annum, depending on the amount, terms, and clients.

“The dynamics in October are interesting,” says Gennady Fofano, president of the InvoiceCafe investment platform. “There are no offers for up to 90 days at 10%, for up to 180 days there are, but for longer the ceiling is still the same 10%. With such a Central Bank rate, banks could make more tempting offers; the picture on rates illustrates their wait-and-see position – perhaps they are just trying to maximize their margin, since loan rates were raised immediately, but there is no point in increasing deposit rates much, since the market situation for them it is an unstable reference point.”

Taking into account increased inflation expectations and a likely further increase in the key rate, we can expect an additional increase in deposit rates, believes Yuri Belikov, managing director of the Expert RA rating agency. “However, in any case, it will be attenuated relative to the dynamics that could be observed in August-September. Because in recent years, banks’ loan portfolios have lengthened in terms of terms and their mobility has decreased. Opportunities for aligning the profitability of assets formed in recent years with the market are limited. Accordingly, a further increase in the cost of funding will directly affect the net interest margin of banks,” the expert clarifies.

In August-September, there was an increase in Russians’ funds in banks, including a flow from current accounts to deposits of various lengths, notes PFL Advisors analyst Ilya Marochenkov. “Perhaps banks do not need as much liquidity now – it is more difficult to issue loans at a high rate than at a low one, and the demand for such loans is decreasing. Therefore, bankers regulate their margins without increasing the rate on deposits,” believes Mr. Marochenkov.

“Currently, banks in general are implementing a cautious policy – this applies to both deposits and loans. And unlike loan rates, there is no increase in deposit rates in proportion to the increase in the key rate,” says Alexey Tarapovsky, founder of Anderida Financial Group.

And the clients themselves do not encourage bankers to change the terms of deposits, clarifies Mr. Tarapovsky: “About 80% of depositors, when choosing a deposit, are guided by the rate, so where it is higher, the more attractive the offer. But even after the rate increase, deposits are primarily a tool for most Russians to avoid the inflationary impact on savings. As a result, in fact, only about 20% of bank depositors track changes and monitor new offers, including in terms of profitability. Thus, there is no need to talk about a massive flow of deposits and other problems.”

Polina Trifonova