The average cost of secondary housing increased by 1% over the month

A noticeable decrease in demand and an increase in exposure have not yet led to the expected decrease in prices for secondary housing: its average cost in the largest cities increased by 1% over the month. But market participants are noticing an increase in the share of discount transactions and, as a result, a decrease in the average cost of housing in real sales. Analysts expect further cooling of the market and lower prices, but warn that deep discounts could attract investors to the segment.

The average cost of secondary real estate in the 18 largest regional markets of Russia (16 cities with a population of over a million, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in February amounted to 142.1 thousand rubles, having increased by 1% over the month, calculated in CIAN.Analyst. Experts recall that in January the increase was similar. According to calculations by Etazhi, “resale” in Russia now costs an average of 122.2 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Over the month, the value increased by 0.4%, over the year – by 10.1%. The cost of a secondary lot in Russia is now 5.2 million rubles. Growth for the month is 1%, for the year – by 15.6%.

Most pronounced growth the average cost of a secondary supply for a month was recorded in CIAN.Analyst in Krasnoyarsk — 2.6%, up to 120.2 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In Samara the dynamics was 2.1%, up to 123.9 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In “Floors” they notice that real estate in Chelyabinsk over the month, on average, the price increased by 3.2%, to 89.3 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In Saratov – by 2.8%, to 90.5 thousand rubles. Simultaneously in Novy Urengoy housing, according to analysts, per month fell in price by 0.7%, to 186 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In St. Petersburg, according to CIAN.Analytics estimates, “resale” now costs an average of 218.6 thousand rubles. per sq. m, having risen in price by 0.5% over the month. In Kazan Avito Real Estate analysts estimate the cost of finished housing at 156 thousand rubles. per sq. m, by January the value increased by 1.2%.

In Moscow The average cost of secondary supply has not changed over the past month and amounts to 336.3 thousand rubles. per sq. m, noted in CIAN.Analytics. Year on year the value increased by 7.2%. Director of the secondary market direction of the Inkom-Real Estate company Sergei Shloma adds that the average apartment in Old Moscow now costs 14.44 million rubles. The growth for the month is 0.2%, for the year – 0.6%. A one-room apartment costs an average of 9.32 million rubles, a two-room apartment costs 13.56 million rubles, and a three-room apartment costs 19.19 million rubles. The cost of secondary housing remains virtually unchanged even with weakening demand: the number of transactions in January decreased by 20% year-on-year, notes Mr. Shloma. February, he said, also loses 15–20%.

The head of the secondary direction of Avito Real Estate, Sergei Eremkin, draws attention to the fact that in the country as a whole, interest in purchasing secondary housing decreased by 29.4% over the year. Although in the last month or two, according to the head of CIAN.Analytics, Alexei Popov, there has been no pronounced collapse in demand, although its structure has changed slightly. “Those who cannot currently find an interesting option in new buildings, where a square meter is on average 15–20% more expensive, are entering this market, those who are planning an alternative deal,” he says.

Although, according to expert observations, selling an apartment has indeed become more difficult. If in December the average exposure period on the platform was 102 days, then in February it was already 144.

There are naturally more offers in some regional markets. Commercial Director of Yandex Real Estate Evgeny Belokurov notes that in Moscow the exposition of finished apartments over the year increased by 23%, in St. Petersburg by 17.9%, in Krasnodar by 15.7%. Sergey Eremkin adds that in Russia as a whole, exhibitions have increased by 17.5% since mid-January.

But the overall dynamics of average prices is not always the determining indicator for the secondary market. Evgeny Belokurov draws attention to the fact that an important role here is played by the presence of a real buyer ready to enter into a deal and bargaining. Now in the market, according to the director of Etazhi, Ildar Khusainov, there is a strong gap between the offer price and the transaction price. So, the average sale price of 1 sq. m, according to his observations, decreased by 1.6% over the past month. “This is one of the significant indicators of cooling, which will increase the size of discounts, especially in cases of urgent sales,” the expert argues. Alexey Popov notes that the value of advertisements is now decreasing by an average of 4% during their life; over the past six weeks, the value has increased by 0.7 percentage points. He estimates the indicator for a “quiet market” at 3%.

Although Sergei Shloma believes that in Moscow, approximately 20% of sellers, not being able to conduct transactions at the desired prices, simply leave the market: “it’s not for sale, which means it’s not going to happen.”

Because of this, the choice of liquid properties in the capital, he said, remains limited. About 10% of market participants remembered barter schemes involving the exchange of housing. “This tool always turns on when there is a lack of buyers with real money, but disappears as soon as the market returns to normal functioning,” says Mr. Shloma. 50% of owners, according to the expert, are simply in no hurry and are waiting for their buyer, and only 20% are ready for a discount.

Analysts are unanimous regarding the further dynamics of prices for secondary real estate. The market is gradually turning towards lowering nominal supply prices, but it is doing so more slowly than expected, states Alexey Popov. Sergei Shloma expects prices to fall in Moscow, explaining that this will inevitably lead to weakening demand and the accumulation of objects on display. Mr. Belokurov expects at least a stop in their growth, recalling that the secondary housing market in many regions of the country is an agency one. “The agent will facilitate the sale of real estate through setting an adequate market price and negotiating with the owner,” he argues. Mr. Khusainov predicts the emergence of lots with a noticeable discount, which will contribute to the influx of investor buyers into the segment.

Alexandra Mertsalova