The average cost of resale property continues to grow

Due to the persistence of high demand and the washing out of liquid supply, the average cost of secondary real estate continues to grow. Over the month, housing in the largest markets of the country has risen in price by almost 2%. Cooling demand due to the gradual reorientation of buyers to new buildings after the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank in the market is expected by mid-October. After that, prices for secondary housing are forecast to stabilize, but the level of bargaining may begin to grow.

The average cost of secondary real estate in 18 largest regional markets of Russia (16 million-plus cities, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in August amounted to 130.4 thousand rubles. per sq. m, calculated in CIAN.Analytics. Compared to July, the indicator increased by 1.9% – this is the maximum monthly increase since March 2022. Previously, the dynamics was 0.7-0.9% per month. According to the estimates of “Etazhy”, in Russia as a whole, the average cost of secondary real estate over the past month increased by 0.33%, to 114.3 thousand rubles. per sq. m. The average supply budget in the country is 4.4 million rubles, which is 1.9% more than a month earlier, according to Avito Real Estate.

The increase in the growth rate of the average cost of housing, the head of “CIAN.Analitiki” Alexei Popov connects with high demand, contributing to the washing out of the budget proposal.

“We have not recorded a mass rewriting of price tags,” the expert says. Now in the database, according to him, 199.8 thousand lots, 6% less than a month earlier. The head of the secondary and out-of-town areas of Avito Nedvizhimost, Sergey Khakhulin, says that the offer for the month decreased by 3.6%, while demand increased by 10.3%. “So far, demand is growing faster than the number of apartments,” he notes.

The most pronounced monthly increase in the cost of secondary housing, according to the calculations of CIAN.Analytics, occurred in Samara, where the average increased by 4%, to 113 thousand rubles. per sq. m. V Kazan the same dynamics amounted to 3.5%, up to 152.5 thousand rubles. per sq. m. V Chelyabinsk, according to “Etazhi”, the average cost of housing for the month increased by 1.75%, to 73.9 thousand rubles. per sq. m. V Volgograd — by 1.6%, up to 86.1 thousand rubles. IN St. Petersburg the dynamics turned out to be more restrained: growth by 0.6% per month, up to 195 thousand rubles. Avito Real Estate adds that the average lot in the city now costs 8.3 million rubles. Compared to the previous month, the indicator increased by 1.2%.

In the secondary market of the “old” Moscow the average cost of mass housing is now 276 thousand rubles. per sq. m, lot – 14.3 million rubles, says the director of the “secondary market” of the company “Inkom-real estate” Sergey Shloma. Over the month, these figures increased by 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively. In New Moscow, the average price of 1 sq. m 202.8 thousand rubles, lots – 9.9 million rubles. By the previous month, both values ​​decreased by 0.1%. Active sales, according to Mr. Shloma, over the past month and a half allowed sellers to avoid discounts: 30% of apartments were sold on the market without bargaining against 20% in June. In the “old” Moscow, according to the expert, for the month the exposure increased by 0.4%, to 88.05 thousand lots. But this is mainly due to the accumulation of low-liquid objects – overvalued, with low characteristics, etc., he says. Good offers, according to him, are becoming less and less.

By raising the key rate of the Central Bank and increasing the cost of lending, Alexey Popov expects a gradual shift in demand from the secondary market to the segment of new buildings.

But only in the long term: “so far, market participants have a lot of approvals received even before the decision of the regulator, and not all banks have radically revised the conditions.” The desire of buyers to maintain the approved rates, according to the director of “Etazhi” Ildar Khusainov, is now even stimulating transactions with secondary housing, fueling demand. He expects the market to cool down closer to mid-October. Although some sellers are already afraid of a decrease in demand, showing flexibility in communicating with buyers, the expert notes. Such owners, according to Mr. Khusainov, are ready to provide a 10% discount.

Due to the high demand at the moment, according to Mr. Popov, it is premature to talk about massive discounts on secondary housing. In the future, the expert expects a general stabilization of prices and their slight decline in the segment of newly commissioned new buildings, where competition is the highest. Ildar Khusainov expects the average cost of secondary housing to remain at the current level until the end of the year, assuming that only the level of bargaining will gradually increase. The expert draws attention to the fact that buyers are now generally thinking more strategically: many are immediately interested in the possibility of refinancing loans in the future with lower mortgage rates. Sergey Shloma doubts that more than 10-20% of clients will eventually leave the secondary market, explaining that many people buy housing without using borrowed funds.

Alexandra Mertsalova