The authorities of Kyrgyzstan introduced a three-year state of emergency due to energy shortage
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The authorities of Kyrgyzstan have introduced a state of emergency in the energy sector for the next three years due to a sharp increase in energy shortages. The reasons are a decrease in generation at hydroelectric power plants due to low water levels, depreciation of generation and a sharp increase in demand for electricity. The state of emergency, judging by the statement of the authorities of the republic, will allow in a short time to allocate land for the construction of green generation. Kyrgyzstan has little choice: the country can build a hydroelectric power plant or a nuclear power plant, analysts say, but three years is not enough for this.
From August 1, Kyrgyzstan introduces a state of emergency in the energy sector due to the growing shortage of electricity within the country. The special regime will last until December 31, 2026. The main reason for the growing energy shortage is the low level of water inflow in the Naryn river basin, which reduces the generation of electricity at local hydroelectric power plants. At the same time, consumption in the republic is growing rapidly.
According to the government forecast, in 2023 the demand will be 16.6 billion kWh, and the deficit – 1.9 billion kWh.
According to the decree, the Ministry of Energy of Kyrgyzstan will be able to determine and allocate land plots for the construction of renewable energy sources. From September 1, the rights to use land plots that are intended for the construction of energy facilities, but are used for other purposes, will be terminated. So far, the authorities of Kyrgyzstan do not talk about the possible disconnection of consumers to save resources. However, Kommersant’s interlocutors do not exclude such a scenario: every year in winter, energy system regulators ask the population to reduce consumption in the morning and evening, and also use gas and coal for heating.
Kyrgyzstan has been experiencing energy shortages for several years now. In 2022, consumption was approximately 17.2 billion kWh and generation was about 14 billion kWh. By 2026, according to the forecasts of the Kyrgyz authorities, the demand will grow to 19 billion kWh, and the energy deficit will reach 5-6 billion kWh. Against the backdrop of a shortage, Kyrgyzstan is forced to buy electricity from neighboring countries. For example, in the second and fourth quarters of 2022, Kyrgyzstan imported more than 1.3 billion kWh from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, according to the CIS Electricity Council.
The basis of the power industry in Kyrgyzstan is hydroelectric power plants, launched back in Soviet times. The installed capacity of the energy system of the republic is about 3.6 GW.
Among the largest HPPs in the country are Toktogulskaya (1.2 GW), Kurpsaiskaya (800 MW) and Tash-Kumyrskaya (450 MW).
Depreciation of generation is more than 60%, which is largely due to the artificial reduction of tariffs.
Thus, the cost of electricity production in the spring of 2023 was estimated at 2.38 soms ($0.027), and the tariff for the population was increased to 1 som from May 1.
The authorities of Kyrgyzstan have for many years declared their desire to develop small hydropower plants. There are more than 250 large and medium-sized rivers in the republic, the potential of which is estimated at 18.5 GW of power. However, the generation of HPPs is very dependent on weather conditions, notes Sergey Rozhenko from Kept. Peak energy consumption in winter coincides with a decrease in river flow, which is further complicated by conflict with downstream countries Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, which are interested in water for agriculture in summer rather than winter, the analyst adds.
Aleksey Faddeev from IPEM adds that the hydropower plant requires significant investment and time, recalling the protracted history of the construction of the Kambarata HPP cascade with Russian participation, which was never successful. The authorities of Kyrgyzstan, judging by their statements, still hope to build a cascade on their own or with the help of neighboring countries. In June 2023, Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation Pavel Snikkars said that Russia was interested in participating in the project.
According to Sergei Rozhenko, it seems logical to build a nuclear power plant in the region, which will close the seasonal gap in generation and consumption.
Rosatom offers Kyrgyzstan to build small nuclear power plants based on RITM-200H reactors (55 MW). But so far, such stations have not been implemented “in hardware” and will probably require significant investments (per unit of capacity), Aleksey Faddeev notes. Thermal stations do not require significant investment and time costs, Mr. Faddeev adds, but the problem of fuel supply arises. The situation with the gas balance in Kyrgyzstan is tense, Sergei Rozhenko notes: “Uzbekistan is becoming a net importer of gas, so it is unlikely that it will be able to supply gas to Kyrgyzstan.” In the short term, a likely solution may be to increase the capacity of thermal power plants (for example, at the Bishkek thermal power plant), since there is coal in Kyrgyzstan.
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