The atom of the American dream

The US Department of Energy believes that the country needs to build 200 GW of new nuclear generation by 2050 to zero harmful emissions into the atmosphere. The construction of new nuclear power plants, according to the ministry, will require more than $700 billion. To achieve the goal, the country needs to launch 13 GW of nuclear power plants a year, although the United States has not been actively building new plants for many years. Foreign analysts call the release of the report an “absurd and irresponsible” act, since it is impossible to fulfill the plan. The construction of such a volume of stations, according to their estimates, will require about $3 trillion.

The US Department of Energy published ambitious report on scenarios for the development of nuclear generation. To achieve zero emissions, the ministry estimates that the country needs to build about 200 GW of new nuclear power plants by 2050. Now in the USA there are 94.7 GW of nuclear power plants. Their share in output is 19.6%. An increase in nuclear power by a factor of three is necessary for a more stable operation of renewable energy sources.

The total cost of the program to build 200 GW of new plants could be more than $700 billion, according to the report. The authors are guided by the estimated specific CAPEX of $6.2 thousand per 1 kW for the headend, and $3.6 thousand per 1 kW for the serial station. At the same time, the estimated cost of generating the head unit is $109 per 1 MWh, and the serial one is $66. Moreover, the production of a serial renewable energy station with storage is $69, and a gas thermal power plant with a carbon dioxide storage system is $63.

The US Department of Energy mentions in the report both the construction of large NPP units (more than 1 GW) and small reactors up to 300 MW.

It is necessary to launch new nuclear power plants from 2030, and from 2040 to introduce annually 13 GW. If we linger for at least five years, then the costs will increase by one and a half times.

Moreover, nuclear power plants can be located on the sites of closed coal-fired power plants (157 coal-fired thermal power plants in the United States have already been removed). The authors of the report warn that their model estimates are intended only for discussion with investors and experts, and are not the strategic plans of the Ministry of Energy.

With an increase in the nuclear power plant fleet, the country’s demand for nuclear fuel will also increase sharply. Thus, the new plants will require an additional 50 thousand tons of uranium oxide per year, 65 thousand tons of uranium hexafluoride (raw material for enrichment), as well as an increase in enrichment capacity by 30 million separation work units (SWU). In addition, the lack of uranium enrichment capacity to 19.75% (HALEU) for small reactors needs to be addressed. Now the United States practically does not mine or process uranium domestically, and one of the main suppliers of uranium, as well as conversion and enrichment services, is Russia (see “Kommersant” dated October 27, 2022).

Analyst Stephanie Cook in her column in Energy Intelligence called the release of the US Department of Energy report “an absurd and irresponsible” act. The US no longer has a complete supply chain for equipment for large-scale nuclear projects, and the cost of building new power units, according to her, will exceed $3 trillion. “The energy department still lives in a nuclear-centric paradigm and is completely behind the times,” she writes.

The United States has not been actively building nuclear power plants in recent years. The unit cost of two 2.5 GW Vogtle power units, which have been under construction for ten years, amounted to about $17.5 thousand per 1 kW, Ms. Cook notes.

The American company NuScale, which is developing a 77 MW small reactor, in March sharply increased its estimates for the cost of six modules to $9.3 billion, that is, up to $19,000 per 1 kW, which is already more expensive than Vogtle.

Oleg Dudikhin from Kept believes that plans to build more than 200 GW by 2050 “look very ambitious, especially in terms of reaching the construction rate of 13 GW of new nuclear power plants per year by 2040.” At the same time, the volume of investments at the level of $ 700 billion looks insufficient even taking into account the gradual decrease in the cost of nuclear power plants during the transition from the first samples (FOAK) to serial ones (NOAK), the analyst notes. The estimated target value of capital costs at about $3.6 thousand per 1 kW is extremely optimistic and comparable to the cost of building modern large-capacity NPP units, the technology and construction cost of which have already been optimized. Oleg Dudikhin expects that the actual figure for specific capital expenditures will eventually be 2–2.5 times higher.

Polina Smertina, Natalya Skorlygina