Tenants were scared away by the news Business RusLetter

The decrease in traffic in the shopping centers of Moscow and St. Petersburg against the background of the announcement of partial mobilization was of a short-term nature – the activity of visitors has already begun to recover. But this cannot yet be said about the mood of potential tenants – they are still not ready to conclude large-scale transactions for the lease of retail space. Activity remains in the fashion segment, but it is not enough to fill vacant areas. The situation is similar in the office market, where space is rented mainly by representatives of the public sector, oil and gas and IT companies.

Mall traffic has begun to recover from a decline partly dictated by the decision to partially mobilize, according to Focus Technologies calculations. In Moscow the Mall Index indicator (reflects the number of visitors per 1 thousand sq. m of retail space) in the week of October 10–16 exceeded the values ​​of the previous two weeks by 2–3%, in St. Petersburg — by 4%. The gap with the same period in 2021 was 13% and 14%, respectively, pre-crisis 2019 – 28% and 25%. The impact of the events of the second half of September was short-term, now the market is gradually winning back the local decline, explains Mikhail Vasiliev, Head of Focus Research and Consulting.

The share of vacant space in Moscow shopping centers in the third quarter was 12%, an increase of one percentage point compared to the second quarter and two percentage points compared to the same period last year, points out Andrey Surkov, head of research and consulting at Magazin Magov.

The expert assumes that the negative trend will continue and by the end of the year about 15% of the premises may be empty.

By mid-2023, the vacancy rate may already grow to 20-22%, Olga Antonova, partner of the Commonwealth Partnership (CMWP), does not exclude, naming the policy of international brands that close their stores as a determining factor.

Ms. Antonova calls the possible preservation of some Inditex stores, the arrival of several Turkish chains and the expansion of Russian ones as positive factors for the market. But activity on the part of the business is not enough to absorb the entire projected vacancy, she notes. Such dynamics, according to the expert, may contribute to a decrease in average rental rates by 12-15% during 2023, although the expert does not observe significant fluctuations at the moment.

Fashion streets

In the street retail segment on the central shopping streets Moscow, according to Irina Burenko, commercial director of R4S Group, 7-12% of the space is now empty – this figure remains stable. But in St. Petersburg even a small positive trend is noticeable. The average vacancy rate in the third quarter was 8.2%, said Alena Volobuyeva, director of the Maris Market Research Department. The value decreased both relative to the previous quarter (by 0.7 percentage points) and the same period last year (by 1.5 percentage points).

Although the activity of tenants is now reduced: the volume of acquisitions of street retail premises, according to Ms. Volobueva, in January-September was 11.3% lower than in the same period in 2021. The expert calls fashion operators the main point of growth – the number of agreements with them, on the contrary, increased by 9%. Irina Burenko connects the trend with the limitation of social networks in Russia: many small brands were forced to go offline from their usual online format. Ms. Volobuyeva also sees strong demand from fitness studios, beauty salons, pet and pet stores.

In the fourth quarter, the market, according to Alena Volobueva, will face a seasonal increase in the share of vacant space and it is possible that this year it will be more pronounced under the influence of non-economic factors. Ms. Burenko recalls that the market as a whole reacted heavily to the events of the end of September: 27% of contracts under active negotiation were suspended, many refused to deal. “Today, the market is gently recovering, there are more new requests, but it’s still far from the state of the first half of September 2022,” she explains.

Offices without tenants

Vacancy in office markets is on the rise. So, in Moscow the indicator for the third quarter increased by 0.4 percentage points, up to 8.4%, says Karina Anaevskaya, director of the office real estate department at Nikoliers. At the same time, CORE.XP director Kirill Babichenko does not rule out that by the end of the year 12% of the premises may already be empty. “Demand after the September events has dropped significantly, many companies have suspended their projects,” he argues. The remaining demand, according to the expert, is formed by companies in the banking sector, housing developers, government agencies. Ms. Anaevskaya does not rule out that several other foreign companies will also decide to close their offices in Moscow: we are talking about those who make decisions more difficult and take longer while being in the negotiation stage. The asking rental rate for offices in Moscow, according to NF Group partner Maria Zimina, is now 27,000 rubles. per sq. m per year for class A offices and 17.4 thousand rubles for class B. The figures, according to her, are now gradually declining.

In St. Petersburg the share of vacant space in the office market, according to the estimates of the general director of the local office of NF Group Konstantin Losyukov, increased by 1.2 percentage points over the quarter, reaching 9.5%. In absolute terms, 378 thousand square meters are empty in the city. m, in the near future, another 18.7 thousand square meters will be vacated. m, he notes. The expert connects the general increase in vacancy, in particular, with the departure of international IT companies from the market. Alena Volobueva expects that by the end of the year 11-12% of the space in St. Petersburg will be empty.

At the same time, demand remains quite active: in the third quarter, according to Maris, it exceeded the figure for the same period last year by 25%. 35% of absorption is formed by companies in the oil and gas sector, 15% – IT. According to Ms. Volobuyeva, trade and service companies are gradually becoming more active in selecting offices, while demand from the financial sector is now two times lower than last year. Although Mr. Losyukov draws attention to the fact that many transactions now represent the migration of tenants from one office to another in search of better conditions. On average, class B premises, according to him, now cost an average of 1.53 thousand rubles. per sq. m per month, A – 2.38 thousand rubles. Since the beginning of the year, rates have increased by 3-4%. “But the owners of business centers with a large share of vacant space are ready to consider discounts of up to 10%,” states Mr. Losyukov.

Alexandra Mertsalova