Tenants return to trade – Kommersant

Despite the restrained traffic dynamics in shopping centers, the demand of tenants for premises is gradually recovering. Mostly Russian fashion retailers are active, and banks, cosmetics, grocery stores and catering establishments are added to them on shopping streets. The office real estate segment is still stagnating: the remaining tenants take a long time to make decisions about transactions. The owners of shopping and office centers have no opportunity to increase the cost of rent in such a situation, positive dynamics can only be traced in the street retail segment.

The Mall Index (reflects the number of visitors per 1,000 sq. m of retail space) in Moscow in early June was 2% lower than the same period last year, in St. Petersburg – by 1%. Such data is provided by Focus Technologies. The gap with the pre-pandemic 2019 was 24% and 26%, respectively. This recession, according to the head of research and consulting Focus Technologies Mikhail Vasiliev, is likely to be short-term, and soon the market will return to slow growth. “Last year, at the end of May – beginning of June, traffic was affected by the factor of pent-up demand, which formed in April – beginning of May, when consumer activity was minimal,” he says.

Trading activity

So far, consultants also look at the retail real estate market quite positively. Magazin Magazin expects a decrease in the vacancy rate compared to the first quarter of the year. Positive dynamics is expected due to new openings in the anchor premises of H&M, Uniqlo, M&S, etc. that have left the market, as well as reopenings under new names of international brands stores. In shopping centers Petersburg, according to NF Group estimates, 12% are now empty. This is noticeably higher than the figure for the same period last year – 2%, but still better than in December, when the vacancy rate reached 12.6%.

Watching the activation of Russian retailers’ demand, the consultants do not exclude that by the end of the year the share of vacant premises will be reduced to 4%.

Although the general director of the Eterna company, Dmitry Tomilin, doubts a noticeable reduction in the share of vacant space. “The trend towards the development of large monobrands and Russian companies has been outlined, but everyone needs much more time than one quarter,” he says. Magic Group President Alexander Peremyatov believes that the positive dynamics of traffic in shopping centers is now provided mainly by updating the concepts of stores of large Russian retailers. The expert considers it a problem that the market is still reluctant to develop new brands. Against this background, according to Mr. Tomilin, we are unlikely to talk about an increase in rates: “New stores are opening precisely due to a decrease in rent and the fact that shopping centers have become more loyal to the retail that finds an opportunity to open out of hopelessness.”

Fashion streets

According to Irina Kozina, director of street retail at NF Group, the share of vacant space on the central shopping streets will actually correspond to the figure for the same period last year in the second quarter. “The street retail market is less dependent on foreign brands,” she recalls. This segment, according to the expert, is generally the most resistant to geopolitical risks. At the same time, the activity of tenants here, according to the deputy general director of R4S Group Irina Burenko, remains high. In St. Petersburg, according to the observations of NF Group Senior Analyst Natalia Kireeva, the increase in the tourist flow also contributes to the growth in demand for outdoor retail premises. “It is qualitatively different from the pre-pandemic one: now these are mainly guests from the regions and Asian countries,” she notes.

Marina Markova, head of street retail at Magazin Magazin, says that fashion brands are now developing. “There have been and are still expected to open clothing showrooms, mono-brand cosmetics and accessories stores,” she adds. Quite actively, according to her, catering establishments are also developing. Ms. Burenko also sees the interest of banks, alcohol and grocery stores, and small jewelry stores. Irina Kozina sees no prerequisites for lower prices for retail space. And in such locations as Bolshaya Nikitskaya and the vicinity of Patriarch’s Ponds, the cost of rent, according to her, is even growing due to a lack of quality offers. Irina Burenko sees an increase in rates in terms of locations by 20% since the beginning of the year.

Office stagnation

in the office market Moscow According to the results of the second quarter, according to the forecasts of Kirill Babichenko, director of the office real estate department CORE.XP, about 10% of the area will be empty. The figure is comparable with the value for the first quarter and the figure for the same period last year – 9.4%. The process of stabilization continues after last year’s turbulence, says Elena Medushushskaya, deputy director of the office real estate department at Nikoliers. The expert draws attention to the fact that the volume of supply for sublease has decreased by a third compared to the peak value of last year.

Demand for offices in Moscow remains stable: Kirill Babichenko expects that the volume of absorption in the current year will be generally comparable to the values ​​of previous years, amounting to 1.2-1.5 million square meters. m.

Most often, the premises, according to Ms. Medushevsky, are rented by IT, telecommunications companies, representatives of financial and industrial structures.

Remain CEO Dmitry Klapsha notes that the average cost of renting class A offices in Moscow is now 25,000 rubles. for 1 sq. m per year. “There is a tendency for a slight decrease in the requested rates,” he notes.

In St. Petersburg Demand for offices in the second quarter, according to Alena Volobueva, Director of Market Research at Maris, was slightly lower than a year earlier. “This is primarily due to the increase in the period of decision-making by companies,” she notes. Nevertheless, the expert calls the ratio of supply and demand normal: there is no excess space on the market. Volobuyeva calls the level of requested rental rates in the office market of St. Petersburg stable.

Alexandra Mertsalova