Tenants of commercial real estate took to the streets – Business – Kommersant

Commercial real estate markets in Moscow and St. Petersburg are showing signs of gradual recovery. But its pace is quite low. The gap in attendance at shopping malls is smoothing out, and vacancy rates are slowing down, but these indicators are still far from the pre-crisis level. The street retail segment remains relatively active: premises on the streets are now more preferable for some tenants than in shopping centers. New transactions in the office market have become more frequent, but the volume of absorption in the first quarter may be 40-50% lower than last year.

Mall Index (reflects the number of visitors per 1,000 sq. m of retail space) in Moscow February 6-12 was lower than the same period last year by 7%, in St. Petersburg — by 8%. The gap with February of the pre-crisis 2019 was 25% and 23%, respectively. Such data is provided by Focus Technologies. The market continues to be pressured by the departure of some of the brands that attracted visitors and a general decline in purchasing power, analysts explain. The weekend before February 14, according to their observations, did not lead to a noticeable revival of the stream.

Although in the long term, we can talk about a gradual recovery in the flow: the Mall Index was also lagging behind last year’s figures by about 15%. Gradual adaptation of the market and a partial recovery of consumer activity lead to positive dynamics, but it is noticeable only in some objects, says Evgenia Khakberdieva, regional director of the NF Group retail real estate department.

The expert expects a full recovery not earlier than after new anchor fashion tenants start opening stores in shopping centers instead of departed international brands.

Eterna CEO Dmitry Tomilin notes that the period from the end of November to the whole of December was not bad for many retailers, but now the turnover has again noticeably decreased. The average check is growing, but this is due, rather, to inflation, he says.

Trade recovery

Now, according to Mr. Tomilin, many tenants seek to reduce the cost of premises. But the trend is not yet leading to a serious increase in vacancy rates. According to NF Group, now in shopping centers in Moscow empty on average 15.6% of the area, Petersburg – 10.6%. In the future, these figures may increase to 16% and 13%, respectively, analysts do not exclude. “Vacant space is gradually being leased by new operators, but a large amount of free space is still entering the market,” says Ms. Khakberdiyeva. Although Magic Group President Alexander Peremyatov believes that vacancy growth is gradually slowing down: the main tenants of large areas have already left. According to him, Russian fashion brands and cosmetics stores are actively developing in the existing market.

In the street retail segment, according to commercial director of R4S Group Irina Burenko, there is now a revival: the share of vacant space in the first quarter will be 7-10% in Moscow. The expert calls this indicator acceptable. According to Ms. Burenko, tobacco shops, Russian fashion retailers, street food operators, and liquor stores are actively renting premises on shopping streets. Reopening coffee houses and bank branches. Ms. Burenko believes that premises in street retail are now more attractive for some concepts than in shopping centers. In recent years, tenants are facing a loss of synergy due to the departure of international brands, she notes.

office demand

Vacancy in the Moscow office market, According to Elena Medushushskaya, deputy director of the office real estate department at Nikoliers, it will decrease: a large volume of transactions will be concluded in the first quarter. “The pent-up demand has not been fully realized, office workers are gradually returning, in particular from abroad, companies from friendly countries are gradually occupying the vacated niches,” she argues. Although not all consultants are unambiguous. According to the forecasts of Kirill Babichenko, director of the CORE.XP office real estate department, the total volume of absorption in the first three months of the year will reach 150-200 thousand sq. m. m, which is 40-50% lower than in the same period last year.

He assumes that the share of vacant space in the office market in Moscow in the first quarter may grow from the current 10.3% to 12.0%. This value will peak, after which stabilization will begin.

At the same time, the owners, according to the expert, can show more flexibility in negotiations with tenants: the difference between the requested and actual rental rates will grow.

Activity in the office market of St. Petersburg Victoria Goryacheva, Deputy Director of the Nikoliers Tenant Services Department, calls it high. Offices are predominantly occupied by companies with state participation and representatives of the IT industry. Although Alena Volobuyeva, director of the market research department at Maris, does not rule out that the vacancy may increase, as in Moscow. “Many leases expire at the beginning of the year,” she notes. The growing share of vacant space will continue to put pressure on prices – Mrs. Volobuyeva does not expect an increase in rental rates for office real estate. Although there are no prerequisites for their pronounced decrease, according to the expert.

Alexandra Mertsalova