Tenants do not go shopping – Business – Kommersant

Commercial real estate markets have not yet been able to overcome the recession that emerged at the beginning of the year: consultants predict an increase in the share of vacant space by the end of the year in both shopping and office centers. This conjuncture forces owners to fight for tenants, providing them with individual discounts. The street retail market is experiencing a more vigorous crisis, where activity is supported by the active opening of budgetary catering establishments and alcohol markets.

In the shopping centers of Moscow and St. Petersburg, in the week of November 7-13, the Mall Index (reflects the number of visitors per 1,000 sq. m of retail space) lagged behind the figure for the same period last year by 13%. Such data is provided by Focus Technologies. From the indicators of 2019, the attendance of shopping centers in Moscow, according to analysts, lags behind by 29%, St. Petersburg – by 27%. The negative impact on the market continues to have a decrease in income and the exit from the market of international brands that previously actively attracted traffic to shopping centers, says Mikhail Vasilyev, head of research and consulting at Focus Technologies.

Discount Store

The share of vacant space in shopping centers continues to grow. In Moscow The market average, according to Evgenia Khakberdiyeva, regional director of the NF Group retail real estate department, has already increased by 2.3 percentage points, to 14.5%, since the beginning of the year, and by the end of the year the figure may reach 17%. In shopping centers Petersburg, according to the expert, at the end of the year, 7% of the area may be empty compared to 4% at the end of 2021. IPG Managing Partner Ivan Pochinshchikov believes that the vacancy rate in Moscow shopping centers will eventually be fixed at the level of 20-22%. The expert recalls that in March his forecast was noticeably worse: 30-35% of empty space.

According to Ms. Hakberdiyeva, fashion retailers, including multi-brand stores and department stores, are now showing the greatest activity among tenants of space in shopping centers, new children’s clothing chains and home goods stores are also entering the market. Mr. Pochinshchikov states that existing Russian network operators are now thinking about increasing their market share, in particular, by leasing larger areas. According to the expert, it is premature to talk about the entry of fundamentally new players to the market: this process is not fast and will take one and a half to two years.

At the same time, Yevgenia Khakberdieva points out that owners and managers of shopping centers are increasingly trying to keep tenants with discounts or are ready to compensate them for finishing costs. According to the expert, there is no trend for the growth of rental rates on the market now. Executive Director of Glincom Ivan Tatarinov believes that the real cost of rent in the near future will be below the average rates requested on the market: the owners are ready to show high loyalty in negotiations with tenants. First of all, according to the expert, this concerns shopping centers that have recently launched and operate with a vacancy rate of 30-40%.

Restaurants and alcohol stores

In the street retail market, the situation does not look so dramatic. In St. Petersburg The activity of potential tenants, according to Alena Volobuyeva, director of the Maris Market Research Department, is comparable to last year’s figures. 40% of transactions are with public catering establishments, a third of which are budget cafe-bars or pizzerias, the expert notes. New full-cycle restaurants, according to expert estimates, are opening 10% less this year in St. Petersburg than last year. The number of transactions with FMCG segment operators has decreased by 30% this year, but the demand from liquor stores has grown by 40%. R4S Group Commercial Director Irina Burenko says that in Moscow The main demand is formed by tobacco shops, grocery stores, coffee houses and clothing stores: in total they form more than 60% of openings.

Ms. Burenko states that not only economic, but also emotional factors have a strong influence on business now.

This led to the fact that two polar positions were formed in the tenants’ moods: “some say that they do not expect any development in the Russian Federation, “everyone” is now looking towards the UAE and planning openings there, while others, on the contrary, not only open new outlets, but also developing networks. The expert does not yet undertake to predict the impact of these fluctuations on the market, but points out that she does not feel a noticeable increase in the share of vacant space.

Although Alena Volobuyeva expects that at the end of the year, the St. Petersburg street retail market will see an increase in the number of vacant premises, due to both the seasonal factor and “mobilization shocks”. Ms. Burenko does not predict a reduction in rates for street retail premises.

Offices without tenants

in the office market Moscow The average vacancy rate, according to the forecasts of the head of the CORE.XP owner services department, Kirill Babichenko, may increase from the current 8.3% to 12% by the end of the year. The main factors behind the increase in the share of vacant premises this year were the exit from the market of some Western companies and the low activity of the remaining tenants. Veronika Lezhneva, Director of Analytics at Nikoliers, points out that financial and mining companies continue to conclude deals to take over offices – their share in the structure of demand has doubled over the year. At the same time, the share of IT companies diluted from 30% to 11% over the year. “The situation by the end of the year, according to our forecasts, will not change for the better,” notes Ms. Lezhneva.

The current situation in the office market does not contribute to the growth of the cost of renting space, Mr. Babichenko states. Veronika Lezhneva notes that now the efforts of the owners are aimed at maintaining the declared average weighted rates, price reduction is achieved through the provision of individual discounts. On average, renting a class A office in Moscow, according to an expert, now costs 27.3 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m per year, class B – 18.4 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m per year. These indicators are lower than the values ​​for the same period last year, but only by 1-2%.

Alexandra Mertsalova