Tables are being taken out of the cafe – Newspaper Kommersant No. 235 (7436) dated 12/19/2022

Signs of a serious crisis have appeared on the restaurant market – more and more establishments are closing, and fewer new ones, on the contrary, appear. As a result, the total number of outlets in the fourth quarter decreased by more than 10%. According to experts and market participants, the reason was the difficulty in purchasing products, reduced traffic and errors in choosing locations. New investment is being hampered by “general uncertainty” and tenacious landlords.

Since September 2022, the number of closures of catering establishments has begun to grow sharply in Russia, according to a study by R-Keeper, an automation service for cafes and restaurants. Thus, in autumn the number of closings increased by 25.7%, while the number of openings decreased by 3.8% year-on-year. As a result, for the fourth quarter, the number of operating outlets decreased by 10.4%. R-Keeper used data from cartographic services and closed sources for calculations, but does not disclose absolute figures.

R-Keeper Leading Analyst Nikolai Oligerov believes that the decline is due to the general autumn instability. The head of the CORE.XP retail department, Marina Malakhatko, speaks of a drop in revenue for a number of establishments due to the redistribution of consumer spending, which most affected outlets with an average check of 1-2 thousand rubles. RestCon CEO Elena Perepelitsa notes that for catering establishments outside central locations, even a slight decrease in traffic can become critical.

Most closures were recorded in the segments of cafes, pizzerias, sushi bars, bakeries, and the pace of openings fell sharply at street food establishments, bars and wineries, R-Keeper says.

The exception is fast food establishments, where the number of openings outstrips closings. R4S Group commercial director Irina Burenko says that street food and coffee houses accounted for 35% of rental transactions in the first quarter, and 9% in the fourth. In the company, this is associated with a glut of supply.

Artem Lomize, managing partner of the Moremania chain, says that there is a trend towards saving consumers in establishments of the middle price segment. But development is held back not so much by a decrease in traffic as by general uncertainty, he points out. In addition, continues Mr. Lomize, landlords are in no hurry to reduce rates to fill vacant locations. While downtime in shopping malls is undesirable, the owner of a detached space can wait a long time to rent out the facility on his own terms, he explains.

The Shokoladnitsa Group agrees that the year for the market was again not the easiest, because the dynamics of closings could increase. The group itself opened more than 20 new locations this year, mostly of its own, and closures were minimal and related to the inefficiency of outlets in specific locations.

Irina Kozina, director of street retail at NF Group, says that in January-November 2022, 91 restaurants were opened on the central shopping streets in Moscow compared to 116 establishments in 2021. The Pinskiy & Co restaurant group accounted for the largest number of openings, she notes. According to Ms. Kozina, customers of high-price segment establishments are little dependent on external factors, and competition among such restaurants is lower. The founder of the StrEat project, Maxim Popov, says that two or three restaurant groups are opening establishments in Moscow, and most are waiting.

Igor Bukharov, President of the Federation of Restaurateurs and Hoteliers, emphasizes that the data of one service does not allow us to assess the overall picture. According to him, in the vast majority of cases, establishments are closed due to incorrectly chosen locations, inability to negotiate with landlords, management errors, and many other reasons. Irina Kozina adds that some restaurateurs were probably unable to adapt to the new conditions, including those related to the restructuring of the menu and the purchase of raw materials.

Artem Lomize says that Moremania began to pay more attention to the location of potential objects, since the price of an incorrectly chosen location is “extremely high”. Shokoladnitsa Group plans to open new coffee shops in 2023 according to the previously scheduled schedule. As Maxim Popov points out, a recovery in the pace of discoveries is possible after a period of relative stability.

Anatoly Kostyrev, Alina Savitskaya, Alexandra Mertsalova