Supplies of Intel and AMD processors to Russia decreased by 60–? 70%
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According to the results of January-October 2023, deliveries of Intel processors to the Russian Federation decreased by 64%, to 178 thousand units, AMD – by 70%, to 35 thousand units, calculated in the Fplus IT holding, taking into account parallel imports. Market participants cite excessive purchases of components in 2022, a decrease in equipment production in the Russian Federation, inflation and rising loan prices as possible reasons. Experts clarify that Fplus may not have taken into account some of the shipments, also drawing attention to the growth in supplies of finished equipment based on foreign processors.
According to Fplus, from January to October, 64% fewer Intel processors were delivered to the Russian Federation than during the same period last year. In total, the country received 178 thousand processors worth 3.2 billion rubles. (a drop of 62%). Deliveries of AMD processors for the same period amounted to 35 thousand by 372 million rubles, which is less year-on-year by 70% and 98%, respectively. Fplus also took into account deliveries through parallel imports, but clarified that “a small part of processors are imported into the country under a different code, so they are not displayed in deliveries.”
At the end of 2022, processor supplies to Russia did not change in quantitative terms. So, for example, 143 thousand components were shipped from AMD, and 782 thousand from Intel. But their cost doubled (see Kommersant on March 16).
“In general, there is a decline, it is primarily due to the fact that some companies have suspended updating their equipment fleet in anticipation of domestic developments, and some have simply artificially extended the life cycle of electronics,” says Anton Fomin, a business analyst at the Fplus IT holding. In his opinion, the decrease in supplies could increase the demand for employees who will service old equipment and keep it running, as is happening in other markets. For example, the number of vacancies in Russian companies searching for employees servicing Huawei equipment has already increased by 28% (see Kommersant on November 23).
Kommersant’s interlocutor among Russian computer manufacturers explains the reduction in supplies by the fact that large domestic vendors have purchased many components, the surplus of which they sell to other companies. Among them, the source named Yadro, Aquarius and Fplus itself: “Loans were taken out for approximately 10–20 billion rubles, which is about 100 thousand foreign processors.” In his opinion, the reduction in supplies will not affect producers: if necessary, they can be increased through parallel imports. Yadro stated that they do not comment on rumors; Aquarius did not respond to the request.
Another likely explanation for the decrease in supplies may be that in April, several dozen companies that produced their equipment, including on Intel processors, were excluded from the register of the Ministry of Industry and Trade (see Kommersant on April 10), says the director of the Promobit company (a server manufacturer and Bitblaze storage system) Maxim Koposov: “As a result, they had to reduce equipment production.” According to Mr. Koposov, for the unregulated electronics market, the reduction in the supply of components may be due to the fact that processors began to be imported in ready-made systems – computers, storage systems, servers, etc.
A representative of computer manufacturer RDW Technology believes that the reduction in supplies was influenced, among other things, by inflation and an increase in loan rates. “Trivial savings are forcing the corporate segment to increase the cycle of computer use, resort to technological cannibalism and revise the timing of purchases of new equipment,” he believes, adding that this year “there was a shortage of some models of foreign processors.” The RDW representative added that the price of foreign chips for the current year has increased by 10-15% compared to 2022.
At the same time, there is a possibility that in order to reduce sanctions risks, “equipment began to be imported as components and in reality the numbers are different,” believes Fedor Boyarkov, vice president for production development at GS Group. If the reduction is real, the expert adds, it “could slow down the contract production of Russian equipment, since companies will lack components.”
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