Such is the Northern Sea Route – Kommersant
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The head of Rosatom, Alexei Likhachev, at a meeting with Vladimir Putin, proposed directing the export of Russian oil from the Baltic ports to the Northern Sea Route. According to Rosatom, this is “the most attractive and safest route” under the sanctions. But Kommersant’s interlocutors doubt the economic feasibility of the idea and the availability of a sufficient number of ice-class tankers for year-round shipments. According to experts, it will take several years to create conditions for such supplies.
Rosatom is discussing with oilmen the redirection of Russian oil exports from the Baltic ports to the Northern Sea Route for deliveries to Asia, declared Andrey Likhachev, head of the state corporation, at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to Mr. Likhachev, the EU embargo on Russian oil supplies, imposed on December 5 last year, “opened a new window of opportunity for additional cargo base on the NSR,” which the top manager considers “the safest and most attractive route.”
The volume of traffic along the NSR in 2022 amounted to 34 million tons, the plan for this year is 36 million tons. “The participation of partners from friendly countries is being worked out not only in transit along the NSR, but also in the development of infrastructure,” said the head of Rosatom. Rosatom told Kommersant that they could not provide details yet.
Rosatom acts as the operator of the Northern Sea Route and is responsible for its development. Vladimir Putin instructed to increase the traffic along the NSR to 80 million tons by 2024, but now the implementation of the plan is in doubt.
By 2030, transportation was expected to grow to 150 million tons, and by 2035 to 220 million tons, which now looks extremely unlikely due to the slowdown in the commissioning of LNG projects and transit traffic. A number of Kommersant’s interlocutors believe that the idea of redirecting oil from the Baltic to the NSR is designed to ensure that the declared figures for cargo turnover are met.
On the other hand, the idea has a rational grain. The sanctions forced oil companies to refuse to supply oil to Europe and transport it to Asia, which has already increased freight costs significantly. In addition, the export of oil from the ports of the Baltic means the need to pass through the Danish straits, which hypothetically in the future poses a threat of restrictions on tankers with Russian oil under the pretext of their insecurity or lack of European insurance. From this point of view, the NSR looks like a more reliable route, but longer, if the cargo goes from the Baltic ports along the NSR to the east.
Now only oil from the Arctic fields is transported along the NSR.
The Russian Federation monthly exports about 6 million tons of oil from the Baltic ports (Ust-Luga, Primorsk, St. Petersburg and Vysotsk). According to two interlocutors of Kommersant, the issue of redirecting oil supplies to the NSR from Ust-Luga and Primorsk was discussed with Gazprom Neft and Rosneft. But oil companies are embarrassed by the need to order special tankers, which are not mass-produced in the Russian Federation, as well as the lack of a sufficient number of icebreakers for year-round escort to the east. Now the option of shipping several shipments in the summer is being considered, when conventional tankers can pass through the NSR.
Two Kommersant sources claim that back in 2022, the construction of an oil pipeline from BPS-1 to the ports of the White Sea with a capacity of several tens of millions of tons per year was discussed, however, “this option is not seriously considered.”
Adviser to the head of Transneft, Igor Demin, confirmed to Kommersant that a project was being worked out for a diversion from the BPS in the direction of the White Sea, and three routes for laying oil pipelines had been traced. According to him, now economically this project is unrealizable within the framework of the investment program of Transneft. “We are exploring other options, the construction of which is possible through repayable loans from banks and the company’s own funds in a much shorter time,” he said.
According to Portnews’ Nadezhda Malysheva, the redirection of significant volumes of oil from the Baltic ports to the NSR will take at least several years, while the need for icebreaking assistance increases the cost of such logistics. As for oil shipments from the northern ports of Vitino, Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, their use for deliveries via the NSR is limited by the capacity of the railway.
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