Stocks of Chinese heavy trucks in Russia will be sold until spring

Large stocks of Chinese heavy trucks have accumulated in Russia; they will be sold until spring. The cooling of the market in recent months due to the increase in the Central Bank rate, even against the backdrop of a slowdown in imports, has led to the accumulation of stocks. In general, truck sales in 2023 will reach a record – 137 thousand vehicles, according to KamAZ, which this year did not have time to significantly increase the production of K5 generation tractors. Next year, the brand is going to increase their sales, and, as VTB Leasing estimates, the increase in output of Russian players will offset the decline in imports.

By the end of the year, more than 11 thousand truck tractors and 6.5 thousand Chinese-made dump trucks had accumulated in the warehouses of dealers and distributors in the Russian Federation – these remnants alone will last until February-March 2024, VTB Leasing estimated.

The company took into account the average monthly sales rates of the most popular brands in the segments from China and their inventories from the main suppliers. So, for example, in Russia at the end of November there were 2 thousand tractors and 2.5 thousand dump trucks in warehouses of the market best seller among foreign cars, Shacman. On average, according to the lessor, in the second half of the year the brand sold 900 tractors and about 1.2 thousand dump trucks per month. At the same time, by the end of the year, as demand declined, sales declined: according to Autostat, in November the brand sold only 1.7 thousand trucks.

KamAZ remained the leader of the truck market in November, the agency calculated. VTB Leasing notes that the domestic brand “can show multiple growth in the tractor segment in the first quarter of 2024.”

KamAZ confirms this assessment and says that they expect to increase the production and sales of the latest generation K5 trucks several times (5 thousand in 2023).

“In September, we observed a decrease in imports of equipment from China against the backdrop of an increase in recycling collection, changes in exchange rates and an increase in the key rate. Already in October, the import of equipment from China somewhat picked up, and Russian brands continue to increase the production of cars, occupying an increasing share of the market. Thus, negative factors are partially leveled out,” says Anton Musatov, General Director of VTB Leasing Group of Companies. He notes that equipment may continue to rise in price due to the continuing decline in imports and “leasing will become the most profitable tool for its acquisition.”

Vladimir Zhelobov, director of the commercial transport department of the Avtodom Group of Companies and the Autospets Center Group of Companies, confirms that there is an excess supply of tractors and dump trucks. The dealer believes that the sale of warehouses is not facilitated by a fairly high leasing rate, which increased following the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank. Mr. Zhelobov adds that since the key rate will not decrease at the beginning of the year, some market stagnation is expected.

Transport companies have previously stated that there are no problems with the availability of Chinese tractors, unlike semi-trailers.

In addition, they talked about the presence of discounts from manufacturers on tractors from China “to stimulate sales” (see “Kommersant” dated December 13). The situation is similar with stocks of Chinese brands in the passenger car market, the recovery of which also slowed down in the fall against the backdrop of rising prices and an increase in the Central Bank rate.

According to the results of January-November, almost 131.2 thousand trucks over 3.5 tons were sold in the Russian Federation, as follows from Autostat data. KamAZ estimates the heavy truck market in 2023 at a record 137 thousand vehicles. “At the beginning of next year we will see a market correction, but this cannot be called a fall. Most likely, this will be a search for balance in the market after a historical peak caused by well-known macroeconomic disturbances,” they explain. The automaker’s forecast for market volume for 2024 is up to 110 thousand units: “If you don’t count the current year, this will also be the best figure since 2012.”

NAPI expects that sales of new trucks in 2024 will amount to 140.3 thousand units in the base scenario.

Olga Nikitina