Statistics covered in darkness – Newspaper Kommersant No. 211 (7412) dated 11/15/2022

The disappointing forecasts of power engineers began to come true: in October, there was the deepest decline in electricity consumption since the beginning of the year in most regions of the country. Kommersant was the first to notice this: according to my calculations, over 29 days of last month, demand fell by 0.8% year-on-year. I didn’t have time to find out the data for the last two October days: the “System Operator” (SO, power system dispatcher) hid the statistics on its website.

The disappointing forecasts of power engineers began to come true: in October, there was the deepest decline in electricity consumption since the beginning of the year in most regions of the country. “Kommersant” was the first to notice this: according to my calculations, over 29 days of last month, demand fell by 0.8% year-on-year (see “Kommersant” dated October 31). I didn’t have time to find out the data for the last two October days: the “System Operator” (SO, power system dispatcher) hid the statistics on its website.

For the first time, CO did not even publish a press release on electricity consumption and generation over the past month. The representative of the dispatcher explained to Interfax his act with good intentions: they say, SO “advocates the reliability of the published conclusions,” but the data is increasingly “used incorrectly.” SO refused to provide his own interpretation of the statistics. The Ministry of Energy limited itself to only positive information about the growth in demand by 1.6% since the beginning of the year. However, last week at a meeting on preparation for the winter, it was said that consumption in October fell by 0.5% yoy.

It is difficult for me to judge the true reasons for the closure of statistics. Maybe regulators are afraid that unfriendly countries will be able to infer the state of certain industries in specific regions? So far, the growth in demand, obviously, is provided by the population and cryptocurrency mining farms. Peak power consumption in industry (excluding households) has been falling for the fifth month in a row: according to the latest information from my sources, in October the figure fell by 3.5% yoy.

But there are probably other explanations for the reticence of regulators. Electricity consumption data is an extremely important indicator on the basis of which strategies for the development of energy systems are created, decisions are made, for example, on new non-market mechanisms for the return of investments in the construction of stations, as well as on cross-subsidization. The current market design works only with an increase in consumption, which provides a cash flow for investment. I believe that if we publicly acknowledge the decline in demand, we will have to discuss the flaws in the regulation, and what is most undesirable, the adjustments to existing mechanisms.

Alas, I have to disappoint the regulators: electricity consumption will not magically start to rise again after the close of statistics. Next year is likely to be even tougher due to the more tangible impact of sanctions on industry. Analysts, on the other hand, will be looking for (and are already finding) other indirect data that will make it possible to judge the consumption and generation of electricity in the country. As a result, there will be more “incorrect” conclusions about the state of affairs in the energy system, but the regulators will have nothing to refute them.