Smartphones have shown growth – Kommersant FM
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Global smartphone sales rose for the first time in two years. From October 2022 to October 2023, the figure increased by 5%, as calculated by Counterpoint Research. Since the summer of 2021, the demand for smartphones has consistently fallen in annual terms. Analysts explain the turnaround in dynamics by the recovery of sales in developing countries, including Africa and the Middle East, as well as the release of the iPhone 15 and new products from Huawei.
Flagship models became the sales driver in Russia in the third quarter. They were bought for fear of rising prices, Kommersant wrote. In physical terms, demand increased by 44% year-on-year, in monetary terms by 66%. Nevertheless, the market is recovering primarily due to natural reasons, says Sergei Vilyanov, leading analyst at the Fintech Lab accelerator:
“In 2020 there was a colossal surge – everyone urgently needed more or less productive smartphones. The life cycle of the device is on average two years. After this, the battery begins to degrade. Someone changes it, and someone goes for a new phone. The relative surge will continue until mid-2024, because those people who updated their equipment in 2021 will also buy.
If we are talking about flagships, smartphones seem to have become more expensive, but if you look more closely, today you can buy for less money what was a flagship two years ago. In principle, they even fell a little in price, despite inflation and other unpleasant events, simply because manufacturers in recent years have been actively pumping not the upper segment, but the middle one.
The dollar has fallen noticeably in price. I spoke with one supplier – he was incredibly sad because he ordered equipment for 100 rubles. for a dollar, and when it arrived at the warehouses, it became 88 rubles. Sellers, especially distributors, really need hard cash. There’s such a crazy thing happening on marketplaces right now in terms of discounts, bonuses, something absolutely fantastic.”
At the same time, retailers admit that smartphone prices will rise by 15-20% in December. The average retail price of the device will be 26-27 thousand rubles. – about 5 thousand rubles. more than a year ago. Such forecasts were shared with Vedomosti by Wildberries and the operators Tele2 and Beeline.
Other retailers, however, are not expecting price increases for the New Year. In their opinion, the iPhone 15 will cost the same as at the start of sales, but prices for models from previous years may increase due to the weakening of the ruble. In the fourth quarter, device sales will exceed the level of last year, but there is no talk of a complete recovery of the market, notes Denis Kuskov, CEO of the analytical agency TelecomDaily:
“I wouldn’t talk about long-term plans. In Russia, the sales situation has really improved compared to last year and the first two quarters of this year. In the fourth, probably, taking into account purchases for the New Year, the market will continue to grow. Last year, according to Telecom Daily, about 24 million smartphones were sold, this year we expect about 26 million. In terms of money, I think the situation will not change much, but in terms of units there will be more.
If the recycling fee is extended to imported equipment, this may cause an increase in prices, but it is too early to talk about this. Again, you need to understand what our legislators want to achieve, given that there are practically no Russian smartphones; they are 95% made in China from its components. The introduction could encourage more purchases as people think the price will increase.”
In May of this year, Apple dropped out of the top three in terms of smartphone imports to Russia. But in terms of revenue, the company still remains in first place in the local market, GS Group analysts found out then. It is now difficult to calculate the real dynamics of smartphone sales in Russia, notes Sergei Kuznetsov, editor-in-chief of the itzine.ru portal:
“Samsung has a larger share in the world – 20%, Apple – about 16%. It seems to me that Samsung is doing better now.
It has brighter new products, foldable smartphones that Apple still doesn’t have, and a large portfolio of different price segments. In particular, Samsung has a cool story with the Fan Edition: six months or a year after the release of the flagship, they release a device with the same number, but a little worse, while being 30-40 percent cheaper.
Apple is still focusing on people who can afford an expensive product. The company sells services, and everything works out for them. Plus Apple is a leader in the production of laptops and its own chips for them. Innovation on the iPhone has slowed down a bit. In 15, perhaps the coolest feature is LOG. You can now make movies on your smartphone. But there is no need for the average consumer to buy a new iPhone every year. You can probably use the phone for a couple of years, or even three.
As for the share of sales in Russia of other brands, Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo each have about 10%. Further brands usually divide the pie with 2-5%. In the Russian Federation, the demand for smartphones is also growing. In October there was a report that sales volumes had reached a level comparable to 2021. But we cannot measure it in terms of money and Apple pieces, because we do not have any data – only gray imports.
Last year, the corporation fell to fifth place from second; Samsung was in first, which is already in fourth position this year. Xiaomi is in first place, followed by Realme and Tecno. Everything is clear here: Xiaomi has a huge number of smartphones at different prices, and Realme and Tecno have about the same. These are models in the middle and budget segments that cover most of the needs of Russians.”
The possibility of introducing a recycling tax on imported electronics by the end of 2024 was recently discussed in the Federation Council. The idea was supported by the Ministry of Industry and Trade. The authors of the project explained that the measure would replenish the budget, partially free the market from foreign companies and help Russian producers.
The Association of Trading Companies and Manufacturers of Electrical and Computer Equipment objected that the recycling fee would become an additional burden for suppliers and would lead to higher prices for imported goods.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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