Small business collects on sites – Newspaper Kommersant No. 209 (7410) dated 11/11/2022

At the end of October, the crowdlending market won back the September fall: the volume of loans on the sites amounted to 1.19 billion rubles. However, neither players nor experts are waiting for a full recovery: force majeure in 2022 cost the market about 30% growth. The main development factor next year for him will be working with small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs), which are limited in access to traditional financing.

“Kommersant” got acquainted with the study of crowdlending in the Russian Federation, conducted by Money Friends: at the end of October 2022, the market showed significant growth after the September failure. The volume of loans issued on specialized sites amounted to 1.19 billion rubles, which is 18% more than in September. At that time, the market, on the contrary, saw a 13.5% drop after a surge in August (see Kommersant dated October 3).

The results of September were influenced by a new stress for the economy — the beginning of partial mobilization, under the sign of which the last ten days of the month passed. In October, “the players adapted to the new realities, overestimated the situation, but still, under the influence of increased uncertainty, October showed an increase of only 2% compared to August, and not 20-25%, as we had planned,” said Yury, a member of the expert council of the State Duma Committee on the financial market Kolesnikov. In his opinion, “if no new shocks appear,” crowdlending will grow by 10–15% per month by the end of the year.

Potok CEO Yuri Popov adds that at the end of 2021, the company’s specialists expected a 50-70% increase in the market in 2022. But “force majeure events cost about 20-30% of growth.” According to Mr. Popov’s forecasts, in 2022 the market will reach the volume of issuance of 11-12 billion rubles, although “it could grow to 14-15 billion rubles if the year went smoothly.”

With stabilization in the economy, the market will continue to grow in 2023, experts believe. “This will be facilitated by the disappointment of investors in classic investment instruments, the deterioration of the financial performance of SMEs and, as a result, their limited access to bank financing,” explains Mr. Kolesnikov. He emphasizes that “for the peace of mind of investors, there are statistics on profitability and delinquencies in the segment that have been confirmed even during crisis periods, which looks advantageous against the background of other investment products.”

The next year will be difficult for small businesses, adds Mr. Popov, so “alternative lending” will continue to grow by 50-100% per year due to the redistribution of business from banks. “The volume of the SME lending market is estimated at 10 trillion rubles, crowdlending is less than 20 billion rubles. These figures are not yet comparable in volume and only emphasize that the segment definitely has room to grow,” says Roman Khoroshev, founder of JetLend, an investment platform for SMEs.

At the same time, low business activity against the backdrop of increasing risks and uncertainty will hinder development, Yury Kolesnikov admits. “The market is still limited by a small number of investors. According to the results of the third quarter, only about 20 thousand people are actively investing on the platforms. Although the figure means a two-fold increase since 2021, for citizens it is still a niche and unfamiliar investment product, ”explains Kirill Kosminsky, Executive Director of the Association of Investment Platform Operators.

It is necessary to expand the state subsidy program, resume investments, for example, from VEB.RF, actively support new digital rights instruments in the “sandbox” mode, emphasizes Mr. Kosminsky, so that infrastructure is available in each region, any entrepreneur could issue such assets. In addition, he notes, it is important that the regulatory burden does not grow.

Polina Trifonova