SJ-100 will reach planned flight hours two years after the start of operation

As Kommersant found out, the Superjet manufacturer, Yakovlev PJSC, expects that the aircraft will reach the planned commercially effective flight time of 7.3 hours per day two years after the start of operation. Kommersant sources believe that the flying time in the first years can be limited by the reduced service life of the PD-8 engine, the testing of which is being delayed. As a result, the first SJ-100 aircraft may enter service at Aeroflot no earlier than mid-2024. Yakovlev reported that they expect certification of the aircraft in 2023, but emphasized that safety requirements remain a priority. Other sources in the aviation industry emphasize that “so far everything indicates that the engine manufacturer is on time,” although they call the accelerated test schedule in 2022 “hellish.”

The import-substituted SJ-100 (new name SSJ-NEW) should reach the planned flight hours two years after the start of its operation, Andrei Boginsky, general director of PJSC Yakovlev (formerly Irkut), told Kommersant. As the press service added, the manufacturer considers the target average monthly flight time for the SJ-100 aircraft to be 220 hours, “however, the economic efficiency of the aircraft will largely depend on specific airlines and their operating models.”

The average daily flight time expected by the manufacturer will therefore be 7.3 hours per day. For medium-haul Airbus 320 and Boeing 737-800, a flight time of 10-11 hours is considered good, but for short-haul aircraft it is usually lower. Thus, the Brazilian Embraer E-170, comparable in capacity to the SJ-100, traditionally flies to the Russian Federation for about six hours a day.

The SSJ, as Kommersant wrote, has increased its flight hours by 45% over the past four years (see Kommersant on June 8). In 2022, some operators flew it a third more than before the sanctions: an average of eight to nine hours a day. The best results were shown by IrAero (almost 305 hours per month), Red Wings (285 hours), Azimut (264 hours), and Yakutia (231 hours). The flight hours of the largest operator of the SSJ Rossiya have remained almost unchanged since 2018 and remained the smallest: 3.8 hours per day. Kommersant’s interlocutors close to Aeroflot explain this by “saving resources and efficient operation of a large fleet”: the carrier can afford to keep part of the aircraft on the ground.

Kommersant’s interlocutors in the companies operating Superjets are optimistic: “The planes will treat childhood illnesses at Aeroflot and, we believe, will come to us with the flying hours expected by the manufacturer,” says one of the top managers. According to him, there are no significant complaints about the after-sales service system, as well as “to its future conditions discussed today.” In this regard, the aircraft’s achievement of the planned flight hours does not seem unrealistic to him.

“Commercial efficiency” is a fairly general concept that combines two groups of characteristics, notes the head of “Airport” Oleg Panteleev. On the one hand, there is an expense component, which is formed from the cost of ownership, fuel costs (depending on fuel efficiency), maintenance (determined by the labor intensity and frequency of work), airport and air navigation charges (depending on the maximum take-off weight of the aircraft). On the other hand, there are factors that influence an airline’s ability to earn money, and these are the average monthly flight time, seat capacity, and the ability to take on associated cargo.

Another important criterion is the aircraft’s readiness to fly on schedule. All aircraft, without exception, have “not brilliant performance” during the initial period of operation, notes Oleg Panteleev, and these risks are taken into account in the cost of delivery to the launch operator, and the manufacturer’s guarantees include the payment of compensation if the stated parameters are not achieved. “If an aircraft has flight hours lower than its market counterparts, but was purchased at a significant discount, the economics of its operation may converge,” he added. According to the government’s preferential leasing program, the minimum cost of an SJ-100 for Aeroflot is 2.2 billion rubles. The performance of the first SJ-100 will not have a serious impact on the business model of Rossiya with its large fleet, the expert believes.

The largest airlines traditionally have a sufficient reserve of aircraft to ensure the operation of the entire fleet “problem-free, even taking into account the disruptions of new aircraft introduced into the schedule.”

Engine of progress

The lifespan of the Russian PD-8 engine will have a decisive influence on the aircraft’s flight hours. According to Kommersant sources, including the United Engine Corporation (UEC, part of Rostec), the resource may be significantly limited in the first years of operation. According to them, the process of preparation for certification of the PD-8 occurs with difficulties that can either push the deadline beyond 2023 or lead to the certification of an engine with limitations in terms of service life and operating modes. Several interlocutors say that according to the original test schedule, testing of the PD-8 on the SJ-100 was supposed to begin in the spring, but the date is still unclear. During ground tests in the spring, changes were made to the hot part of the engine, which, according to two Kommersant sources, led to an increase in timing. According to one of the sources, during spring flights on the Il-76 flying laboratory, the engine was unable to reach the required performance. The SJ-100 is currently being tested with the Russian-French SaM146 engine.

According to three sources, rescheduling of the delivery date of the first SJ-100 to Aeroflot is being actively discussed – from the end of 2023 to the second half or end of 2024. One of them admits that Aeroflot may receive the first aircraft with SaM146 engines, “this is a completely working option.”

On September 11, at the VEF, Aeroflot signed contracts for the financial lease of 18 MS-21-310 and 34 SJ-100 with the Rostec leasing company Aviacapital-Service. The timing of the transfer was not specified, but the head of the state corporation, Sergei Chemezov, indicated that “large-scale deliveries will begin in 2024.” In the comprehensive program for the development of the aviation industry until 2030, deliveries of two SJ-100 and four PD-8 engines are planned for 2023. Earlier, the head of the group, Sergei Aleksandrovsky, also said that the first aircraft were expected there by the end of the year. At Aeroflot, Kommersant’s questions were forwarded to the aircraft manufacturer.

Yakovlev, when asked about the timing of certification of the aircraft, replied that at the moment they remain the same – the end of 2023, however, “the company’s priority remains conducting a full range of tests that will confirm the declared characteristics and safety of all aircraft systems.” They refrained from other details. Rostec, UEC and the Ministry of Industry and Trade did not respond to Kommersant’s request.

Kommersant’s interlocutors emphasize that restrictions on engine life will affect the economics of its operation, but not safety. “No one certifies an undertested and unverified engine; the manufacturer simply will not accept it,” explains one of Kommersant’s sources. A number of Kommersant’s interlocutors note that increasing the service life of engines during operation is a standard practice of global manufacturers.

Another source in the aviation industry noted that “it would be strange to expect that the process of creating the PD-8 will go smoothly and without any hiccups, and that the engine itself will pass all the exams with flying colors, this only happens in fairy tales.” He noted that the engine is being created “not just in a short time, but in record time,” recalling that the certification period was set at the end of 2024, and then was reduced. The head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov in March 2022 set the task of postponing the deadline to 2023. “From this point of view, such a rapid entry of the PD-8 into bench tests and flights on a flying laboratory is a great achievement,” says Kommersant’s interlocutor. “If we manage to meet the deadlines for testing as part of the aircraft and subsequent certification, and they remain the same – 2023 , this will be an excellent result. So far, everything indicates that the UEC is on time, although the deadlines are hellish.” He admits that at the first stage in the process of serial implementation and operation, some rough edges and “childhood sores” will inevitably arise, but “absolutely all engine builders in the world face this.” According to Kommersant’s interlocutor, as a result, “airlines will receive an understandable engine, which in all operational characteristics will be as close as possible to the SaM-146.”

Aigul Abdullina