Shopping centers are expanding in the regions – Newspaper Kommersant No. 11 (7456) dated 01/23/2023

Over the past three years, the level of provision of residents of the largest cities of Russia with retail real estate has grown by 7.4%, to 507 sq. m. m per 1 thousand inhabitants. The largest growth was recorded in Perm, while in Ufa this figure, on the contrary, decreased. Although the average provision of space in Russia is still noticeably lower than in Europe, consultants do not expect active commissioning of new facilities in the coming year. In order to return to investment in retail real estate, it is important for developers to increase the income of the population and the growth in the number of brands present on the market.

The supply of retail space in 15 Russian cities with a million population in 2022 averaged 507 sq. m. m per 1 thousand inhabitants, an increase of 7.4% compared to the pre-crisis 2019, according to a study by NF Group. Perm showed the most noticeable growth of the indicator – by 49%, up to 384 sq. m per 1 thousand people. In Ufa, Krasnoyarsk and Rostov-on-Don, according to consultants, the dynamics turned out to be negative: the supply of retail space has decreased by 1% or less over three years.

In general, according to the regional director of the retail real estate department of NF Group, Evgenia Khakberdieva, the level of provision with retail space in Russia is 201 sq. m. m per 1 thousand inhabitants. This is one and a half to two times lower than the European average, she notes. Magazin Magazin analysts indicate that the supply of shopping centers is now comparable to the European level only in Krasnodar, Samara and Yekaterinburg, but in some administrative districts of Moscow this figure is quite low.

According to NF Group, the highest level of retail real estate provision remains in Samara, where 1,000 people account for 771 sq. m. m of retail space, an increase over three years amounted to only 1.8%. Moscow is in fourth place among the largest cities in the country. There are 580 square meters per 1 thousand residents of the capital. m of retail space. Since 2019, the value has grown by 11.1%. In St. Petersburg, the dynamics for three years amounted to 2.2%, up to 401 sq. m. m per 1 thousand people.

However, experts do not expect a noticeable increase in the activity of developers. Andrey Surkov, head of research and consulting at Magazin Magazin, predicts that the total commissioning of high-quality shopping centers in Russia this year will amount to 200-250 thousand square meters. m, being at the same low level as in 2022. In the total volume, the share of Moscow may exceed 50%. “This is a lot: such a high share of the capital was only in 2020, the average value is 20-30%, sometimes even 10%,” says Mr. Surkov. In Moscow, shopping centers are an integral part of large-scale complex development, explains Nadezhda Tsvetkova, head of CORE.XP retail space leasing. Evgenia Khakberdieva does not rule out an increase in the provision of Moscow with retail space by 2.4% in 2023, to 594 sq. m per 1 thousand inhabitants.

Andrey Surkov suggests that in order for investors to return to the retail real estate market, stable positive dynamics of real incomes of the population, the emergence of a large number of new brands or the return of departed brands are important. Aleksey Bazin, manager of the Grad city park, using the example of Voronezh, doubts that new noticeable shopping centers with an area of ​​​​25 thousand square meters will appear in the city in the foreseeable future. m. In his opinion, in the near future small district facilities will be built in the city. According to Nikoliers, all the objects announced for 2023 still belong to the district or regional format, that is, they do not exceed an area of ​​15 thousand square meters. m.

For businesses, it is generally more logical now to buy problematic facilities in large cities, while building new ones will most likely be unprofitable, notes Eterna CEO Dmitry Tomilin. The expert sees opportunities for the development of retail real estate rather in smaller cities, where shopping centers still function in old facilities. Evgenia Khakberdieva also sees the prospects for the emergence of new shopping centers in Russia, naming regional cities with tourism potential that are promising for developers.

Alexandra Mertsalova