Shopping centers are already celebrating – Newspaper Kommersant No. 37 (7482) of 03/03/2023
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The past February 23 provided shopping centers in Moscow and St. Petersburg with a seasonal growth in attendance by 5-15%, and the dynamics may continue on the eve of March 8. Market participants are talking about a gradual return of consumers to their usual spending patterns, including optional purchases.
The Mall Index (the number of visitors per 1,000 sq. m of retail space) in the week of February 20–26 increased by 5% in Moscow, and by 3% week-on-week in St. Petersburg. And on February 23–24, traffic was higher than the figures for the same days of the previous week by 15% and 13%, respectively. Such data is provided by Focus Technologies. They indicate that the dynamics is close to pre-crisis, and a year earlier the influx of attendance was less pronounced.
Based on current numbers, Focus Technologies expects a similar increase in activity before March 8th. Usually this period is characterized by high traffic growth, but this year there is only one additional day off for the week of March 8. Alexey Vanchugov, Managing Partner of Vanchugov & Partners, calls the pre-holiday traffic good. According to him, in some objects the number of visitors corresponds to the levels of 2019.
According to the head of research and consulting at Focus Technologies, Mikhail Vasiliev, the surge in consumer activity during the holidays indicates that even during the period of the savings model, spending on goods that are not essential items can significantly increase on significant dates. Mr. Vanchugov attributes the good numbers to consumers gradually recovering from shock and returning to habitual spending patterns, also pointing to a growing number of impulse purchases. As an example, Mr. Vasiliev cites fashion chain stores, whose turnover on February 20-26 was 16% higher than the previous week, and on February 23-24 – by 80%. YuKassa data indicates a multiple increase in jewelry and clothing sales from February 25 to March 1.
Head of the “Garden” direction at OBI Maxim Suravegin notes a threefold increase in attendance in the period February 27 – March 2 relative to the previous week, the dynamics before February 23 was 20-30%. “On the eve of March 8, the most popular positions are always bouquets of tulips, then roses and orchids in pots, hyacinths and daffodils,” he lists. L’Etoile says that the number of visits to stores increased by 10% in February and continues to grow. Andrey Shlyaev, marketing director at 585*Zolotoy, sees a surge in demand and expects peak sales on March 5–8. He points to an 8% increase in traffic conversion in a year: “Customers come to the store already knowing what they want to buy.”
But there is no talk yet about restoring the attendance of shopping centers to the pre-crisis level. In Moscow, the Mall Index in the week of February 20–26 was 11% behind the level for the same period in 2022 and 25% behind the 2019 figure. In St. Petersburg, the difference was estimated at 10% and 26%, respectively. Although Mr. Vasiliev notes that comparison with last year’s figures may be irrelevant. In February-March 2022, consumer behavior was often determined by non-market factors. Rising prices and negative information background due to the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine first led to a short-term hype, and then to a sharp decline in activity.
While psychological factors continue to put pressure on attendance, the president of the Magic Group (which develops Slava department stores) Alexander Peremyatov is sure. “People’s fear of security threats and reports of youth formations ‘showdown’, regardless of the veracity of the information, contribute to the general tension of visitors,” he says. Nadezhda Tsvetkova, head of CORE.XP retail space leasing, doubts further increases in traffic outside peak seasons, pointing to a general decline in purchasing power. Although the gradual occupation of the remaining space after the departure of international brands has a positive effect, she adds.
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