Shelves wide open – Newspaper Kommersant No. 220 (7421) dated 11/26/2022

The falling turnover of wholesale trade and the mass exodus of foreign retailers from Russia contributed to a sharp increase in the supply of warehouses for sale. During the year, the number of such ads in the country increased by almost 25%, and in Moscow – four times. But it will not be easy to implement objects. Demand for warehouses has shifted to the regions, and there is an excess of space in the largest cities.

The number of ads for the sale of warehouses in Russia in November exceeded the same indicator last year by 24.4%, calculated in Avito Real Estate. Most noticeably – four times – the supply increased in Moscow; in St. Petersburg, the figure increased by 31.8%. According to NF Group, the number of proposals for the sale of warehouse assets increased by 30-50% over the year. There are premium objects on the market, the appearance of which was not even worth counting on last year, says Alexei Smerdov, Investment Director of Parus Asset Management.

The number of warehouses for sale is growing despite the general decrease in the supply of commercial real estate. According to Avito Nedvizhimost’s estimates, for the year the indicator for the whole market decreased by 2.3%. Advertisements for the sale of retail space decreased by 6%, offices – by 13.3%.

Konstantin Fomichenko, Regional Director of the Industrial and Warehouse Real Estate Department at NF Group, confirms that warehouse premises have entered the market, the owners of which previously did not want to sell their assets. Mikhail Burmistrov, General Director of Infoline-Analytics, notes that according to Rosstat, the wholesale trade turnover in Russia decreased by 12.6% year-on-year in January-September, and by 22.2% in September alone. “Many retailers and distributors have significantly scaled down their business by optimizing space,” he says. And foreign chains leaving Russia are now selling off their inventory, gradually refusing storage capacity, the expert notes. According to him, together with the redistribution of logistics flows, this has led to an excess of space in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

It may not be easy to sell the vacated warehouses now. According to IBC Real Estate forecasts, the total volume of their absorption this year compared to the previous year may decrease by more than 2.5 times, to 1.1 million square meters. m, which will be the lowest figure in the last 11 years. In 2023, according to IBC Real Estate, the volume of absorption of warehouses may be reduced to 900 thousand square meters. m. And the Commonwealth Partnership predicted an increase in the share of vacant space in 2023 from the current 5% to 7%.

Konstantin Fomichenko notes that the demand for warehouse space is indeed lower than last year, although participants in the online trading market and grocery chains remain active. Viktor Afanasenko, director of the warehouse and industrial real estate department at Nikoliers, adds that investors are interested in warehouses, who expect to receive commercial income from their delivery, and the number of such transactions this year could be a record. Mikhail Burmistrov believes that the remaining demand for warehouses is shifting in favor of the markets of the Far East, the Urals, Siberia and regions along the North-South international transport corridor. Although Anton Alyabiev, head of the warehouse and industrial real estate department at CORE.XP, says that the main demand still falls on key logistics hubs.

Philippe Chaika, head of the warehouse and industrial real estate department at IPG.Estate, is not inclined to overestimate the pressure of crisis trends on the warehouse real estate market, pointing out that owners maintain their usual price level. According to him, interest in warehouses may grow in the future due to an increase in commodity flows after the reorganization of logistics and due to the lack of commissioning of new facilities. Soon there may be a shortage of supply, Mr. Chaika believes. Alexey Smerdov maintains positive expectations from the warehouse market, but does not expect a repeat of the hype of 2021 in the near future.

Alexandra Mertsalova