Shares obsessed with external factors – Kommersant

The Moscow Exchange index fell to its lowest level since mid-April. According to experts, this is due to profit-taking after the rally, falling oil prices and a negative external background. Already in May, according to analysts, the index may drop to 2400 points. However, the fall will not be long, they believe.

On May 2, the Moscow Exchange Index fell below 2,600 points for the first time in two weeks. At the moment, it fell to 2560 points, the lowest value since April 14. The decrease in the Russian stock market for the main session amounted to 2.07%, to 2580.51 points. The fall leaders were the papers of NOVATEK (-5.95%), Globaltrans (-5.81%), X5 (-5.42%), RusAgro (-3.84%) and En + Group (-3.8% ). The growth leader was the shares of Sberbank (+0.55%).

According to experts, the market began fixing after the rally. The correction is long overdue, the Moscow Exchange index has been growing for the last two and a half months, according to Tsifra Broker analyst Daniil Bolotskikh.

The main support for the stock market of the Russian Federation is provided by the weakening of the ruble, said Oleg Syrovatkin, an analyst at the Global Research Department at Otkritie Investments. Therefore, according to the expert, the strengthening of the ruble, which began last week, and puts pressure on the Moscow Exchange index. “Unrecovered risks are the Ukrainian counteroffensive, elections in Turkey, lower commodity prices due to fears of a recession in developed countries,” adds Natalia Malykh, deputy head of the Finam shares analysis department.

The reasons for the decline in the index are the fall in Brent quotes to $ 76 per barrel, a generally negative external background and a decrease in demand for risk, as well as weak data on activity in the manufacturing sector in China, Evgeny Shatov, partner at Capital Lab, believes. The Russian market could not hold back on the negative external background on the eve of the start of the weak season for the year, says Alexander Dorozhkin, head of the share management department at Ingosstrakh-Investments Management Company. The overheated second tier experiences the strongest correction. Investors, he said, fear further development of the banking crisis in the US due to the collapse of the largest bank since 2008, First Republic. Among sectoral indices, the indexes of the consumer sector (-3.78%), transport (-3.77%) and construction companies (-3.61%) fell the most.

However, Evgeny Mironyuk, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments, calls the current correction “an attempt to form a local range, consolidation”, and not the beginning of a downtrend. During the May holidays, according to his forecasts, many participants reduce activity without a significant reduction in previously opened positions. Movements can also be associated with the exit of individual large players: “Probably with an eye to the opportunity to try to move the market higher later.”

The Moscow Exchange Index “has been overbought for a long time, but is in no hurry to correct itself,” Oleg Syrovatkin clarifies. First of all, according to him, this is due to the absence of large sellers on the market, which is noticeable in terms of trading volumes.

Nevertheless, oil is getting cheaper, and the ruble may continue corrective growth, and both of these factors look rather negative for the Russian stock market, the expert adds.

Daniil Bolotskikh sees a local minimum at an important support level of 2500 points, which can be reached in May. The reason, according to him, will be dividend gaps and continued profit-taking by investors. The index may spend several weeks in correction and consolidation and return to the area of ​​2450-2500 points, after which it will be possible to resume growth with renewed vigor and update annual highs against the background of the general fundamental attractiveness of the Russian stock market, Oleg Syrovatkin expects. The market will continue to recover after the end of the negative seasonality and the stabilization of the banking crisis in the US, Mr. Dorozhkin believes.

At the end of the year, in the absence of new shocks, Mr. Bolotskikh expects the index to be in the range of 2700-2800 points. On the horizon of 12 months (April 2024), Mr. Mironyuk believes, the index can reach 3480 points.

Ksenia Kulikova