Shareholders invested a record amount of funds in mutual funds in June

The collective investment market showed the best result for a year and a half in attracting investors – net inflow into retail mutual funds exceeded 13.2 billion rubles. Shareholders invested both in risky equity funds and conservative bond mutual funds amid rising stock index and high yields in the debt market. However, restrained expectations for further growth of the market, as well as the tightening of the monetary policy of the Central Bank are unlikely to ensure the same yields.

The first month of summer was successful for the collective investment market. According to Kommersant’s estimate, based on Investfunds data, net inflows into retail investment funds – open-ended and exchange-traded mutual funds – exceeded 13.2 billion rubles, a record high since December 2021.

On the whole, net inflows were shown both by risky mutual funds, which invest mainly in Russian stocks, and by more conservative bond and money market funds. Thus, the net inflow into mutual funds of shares with investments in Russian shares exceeded 5.2 billion rubles. This is a record result for the last year and a half. The largest net inflow was shown by ruble-denominated funds of mixed investments – more than 9.3 billion rubles.

Nikolai Ryaskov, Advisor to the General Director of Management Company PSB, notes that interest in equity and mixed investment funds is supported by positive dynamics in the market: retail investors prefer to “buy what is growing and wait if there is a fall.” Artem Mayorov, Director of the Asset Management Department at Ingosstrakh-Investments Management Company, is more categorical: “People are chasing missed opportunities, this is a psychological moment, and it repeats from year to year.”

Despite the fact that in June the Moscow Exchange index added only 3% and remained at the level of 2800 points for most of the month, it has grown by 30% since the beginning of the year. Moreover, the shares of some issuers over the same period showed a more significant increase: the shares of Sberbank – 70%, NLMK – almost 50%, Yndex – 35%.

Andrey Makarov, the head of the sales department at Pervaya Management Company, notes that the market reacts quite well to external shocks, for example, “the events at the end of June did not have a significant impact on it.” Moreover, in his opinion, the market growth potential remains until the end of the year, which also stimulates investors. In particular, the second and fourth quarters are the dividend season, so clients are also trying to capture dividend payments, Mr. Makarov notes. Some issuers – Sberbank, Rosneft, Tatneft, NOVATEK, PhosAgro – announced large-scale dividends, thus fueling investor interest in the Russian stock market.

Mutual investment funds of ruble bonds also showed a net inflow, albeit insignificant against the background of more risky instruments – 130 million rubles, although at the beginning of the year they were outsiders of the market. As Alfa Capital’s Asset Management Department Director Viktor Bark notes, the bonds are “interesting in their high yield to maturity, which is easy to ‘sell’ now to clients.” At the same time, the prospect of raising the key rate “looks like a risk so far and is not perceived as the beginning of a long trend towards policy tightening,” he clarifies.

A short-term increase may be perceived by the market positively, as a signal of the Central Bank’s determination to slow down inflation. However, Nikolai Ryaskov notes, if the Central Bank acts aggressively “and raises the rate more than the market expects, then a correction is possible, especially in the short segment of the yield curve.”

From funds investing in foreign shares, primarily US shares, the net outflow in June exceeded 2.1 billion rubles. And almost 400 million rubles. funds of mixed investments in foreign assets were missing. However, adds Victor Bark, as the product line of foreign funds is updated, access to friendly assets is expanded, such mutual funds will attract funds from retail investors. “Older products targeted at unfriendly markets will be viewed with suspicion,” he notes.

The weakening of the Russian currency, which intensified in early July, will stimulate the growth of investments in instruments with protection against ruble devaluation. According to Andrey Makarov, the Russian market is expanding opportunities for investment diversification, for example, “the number of replacement bonds, as well as bonds denominated in yuan, is growing.” Moreover, these are tools without infrastructural risk. According to Nikolai Ryaskov, the current weakening of the ruble should increase inflows to exporters’ equity funds, classic equity funds, and replacement bond funds.

At the same time, maintaining the current growth rate of the stock index looks too optimistic. According to Mr. Mayorov, now “the market has reached a fair assessment and is unlikely to repeat the same profitability in the coming year.”

Dmitry Mikhailovich