Share quotes of software companies Astra, Positive Group, Softline fell by 5-6%
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Shares of software companies turned out to be outsiders of trading on the Moscow Exchange, losing 5–6% in price during the day. According to experts, investors are mainly concerned about planned or possible new issues of shares by issuers. But the main influence on the dynamics of the Russian market is exerted by the growing shares of exporters and Sberbank. Even taking into account the expected tightening of the Central Bank’s policy, in general market participants have a positive assessment of its immediate prospects, expecting the Moscow Exchange index to grow to 3300–3400 points by the end of the year.
On the third day after the successful IPO of Astra, software companies turned out to be outsiders of the stock market. During the main trading session on the Moscow Exchange on October 17, the stock quotes of the companies Astra, Positive Group, and Softline literally collapsed by 5–6%.
The sale was massive, as a result, the trading volume of Positive Group shares exceeded 10.3 billion rubles. (third place). The trading volume of Astra shares reached 3.17 billion rubles, which is comparable to the volume of the IPO. Yandex securities held their positions, falling in price by only 0.2%. At the same time, the majority of liquid securities, including shares of Sberbank, LUKOIL, Rostelecom, increased in price by 0.4–3%. As a result, the Moscow Exchange index rose by 0.4% to 3,247.15 points.
The movement of quotations of high-tech companies was determined by various factors. Thus, market participants attribute the fall of Astra to a sharp increase in the last two days (see Kommersant on October 17). During this time, its securities rose in price by almost 70%. As Digital Broker analyst Daniil Bolotskikh notes, Positive Group announced an additional placement of 25% of shares to motivate employees, which disappointed investors, whose stake will be diluted if such a program is approved. In two days, the company’s shares have lost almost 9% in price.
As Artem Outlev, an analyst at Ingosstrakh-Investments Management Company, notes, with regard to Astra and Softline, investors may also be concerned about possible additional issues. In addition, although these companies produce software, they have their own characteristics. In particular, Astra is mainly focused on the development of infrastructure software, and Positive is focused on software in the field of cybersecurity. At the same time, Yandex’s main business is a search engine and advertising, Mr. Bolotskikh points out.
Unlike the United States, in Russia shares of high-tech issuers have never been a driver of the stock market, emphasizes independent financial analyst Andrei Barkhota. The securities of exporters and Sberbank have always had a significant influence on the Russian stock market, he notes.
For the stock market now, the main risk is the risk of inflation, professional participants point out. If inflation continues to grow, the Bank of Russia will be forced to further raise the key rate and keep it at a high level even longer than planned, Mr. Bolotskikh believes. Currently the key rate is at 13%. The yield on short-term OFZs is already above 12.5% per annum, which “reduces the attractiveness of dividend stories,” the expert notes.
Nevertheless, market participants generally assess the situation positively. The Moscow Exchange index may update its maximum for the year in the coming days, Mr. Outlev believes. By the end of the year it could reach 3300–3400 points, adds Mr. Barhota. The scenario, he notes, looks realistic if the key rate is kept no higher than 15% and the exchange rate reaches no lower than 90 rubles/$.
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