Sea routes will be bypassed – Kommersant FM
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Shipping stocks have risen sharply in recent days. The growth in quotes for Japanese, South Korean and Chinese cargo carriers ranged from 5% to 10%, Bloomberg notes. Analysts explain the trend by market expectations: attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on container ships in the Red Sea will lead to an increase in sea freight costs due to a decline in supply. It is expected that many large logistics companies will now prefer to use bypass routes through southern Africa, which will require 10-14 days longer than shipping goods through the Red Sea. In addition, insurance prices should rise.
All this will inevitably affect Russian business, but perhaps to a lesser extent, says Roman Makarov, partner at the NSP law office: “The largest sea carriers, European container lines, for example, AP Moller-Maersk have already stopped passing through the Suez Canal. They have not been working with Russian ports for some time. Nevertheless, they all call at the port of Istanbul, and then the cargo ends up in the Black Sea and further in Novorossiysk.
The problem of bypassing the Suez Canal will affect Russian consignees, and insurance for them will increase. In addition to bulk cargo that is transported in containers in the world today, there are also so-called general cargo, these are ships that transport oil, fertilizers, other bulk cargo, ore, coal, and grain.
This may affect us too. I think Russians – to a lesser extent. The Houthi leadership claims to be selective. I think that the Houthis should not touch ships related to Russia. But, firstly, excesses of the performer are possible.
Secondly, some kind of military operation to stop these actions by certain Western countries. Therefore, in any case, for shippers of general cargo from Russia – oil, fertilizers, diesel, grain – the cost of insurance will increase. Perhaps the price of transportation will also increase, because grain destined for the Gulf will also have to be delivered around Africa.”
As the American media reported, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin intends to go on a tour of the Middle East soon. Among the purposes of the trip, according to journalists, are negotiations on the creation of a coalition to combat threats from the Houthis in the Red Sea.
However, Sergei Druzhilovsky, a professor at the Department of Oriental Studies at MGIMO, doubts that the head of the Pentagon will publicly raise this issue: “The coalition has existed for a long time – these are all the countries of the Persian Gulf, and Egypt led by Saudi Arabia. And all attempts to somehow suppress the Houthis lead to nothing. There is no army there to be able to strike and disable the command staff. That is, these are the tribes that receive weapons.
Therefore, I think Austin will offer his Middle Eastern colleagues, first of all, arms supplies. And in exchange, he will demand that American influence here not weaken. That’s the point, and the Houthis are an excuse, because there’s practically no one there to fight with.”
Meanwhile, as Politico reports, a strike group of US naval forces led by the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower has already arrived in the Gulf of Aden, through which ships enter the Red Sea.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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