Sberbank predicts an 80% increase in mortgage issuance by the end of the year – Kommersant

Sberbank analysts (MOEX: SBER) issued a forecast according to which the issuance of mortgages at the end of this year should amount to 4.6 trillion rubles. This is almost 80% more than a year earlier, or 60% more than in 2021. But in the future, analysts see prospects for cooling interest in mortgages.

“Despite the fact that we are likely to see a serious cooling in the near future, 2023 can be called successful for the Russian mortgage market. According to Sberbank data for less than eleven months, the volume of loans is already about 4 trillion rubles,” reports Sberbank in a release (available to Kommersant).

Recently, representatives of the Central Bank have been talking about the deterioration in the quality of mortgage loans and are considering new measures to regulate mortgage programs. According to the Bank of Russia, over the year the mortgage portfolio of banks grew by 32%. At the same time, over three years, prices for new buildings have increased by 90%.

In the event of stricter requirements, forecasts experts, the issuance of preferential mortgages for new buildings may decrease by 20–40%. The most sensitive for the market may be an increase in the down payment to 30%. But the demand for preferential mortgages is already falling, and interest is switching to “family mortgages.”

The last time the Bank of Russia raised the rate was at a meeting of the board of directors on October 27 – 15%. The Central Bank has been raising the rate since July, then it rose to 8.5%, in August – to 12%, in September – to 13%. Thus, from July to October it doubled: from 7.5% to 15%. The head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, admitted that the rate could be raised again before the new year.

At the same time, in November, against the backdrop of an increase in the key rate, Sberbank and VTB banks recorded increased demand for mortgages. In the last week of October – the first week of November, the number of applications for housing loans was 10-13% more than two weeks before.

More details in the material “Preferential mortgages are freezing”.

Anastasia Larina