Sales of food rations and meal kits could grow by at least 10%

At the end of 2024, analysts expect an increase in turnover in the segment of delivery of food rations and meal kits by at least 10%, to 16 billion rubles, while specialized services, on the contrary, recorded a decrease for two years in a row. Growth is expected to be driven by the launch of budget lines and geographic expansion. But returning to pre-crisis levels will be difficult: consumer savings and growing competition with other sellers of ready-made food continue to put pressure on the business.

Sales of food rations and meal kits with delivery in 2024 may grow by at least 10%, to 16 billion rubles. year on year, Infoline predicts. In 2021, experts estimated the turnover of this market at 16.4 billion rubles. In 2022, the figure decreased by 4%, to 15.7 billion rubles, and in 2023 it decreased by 7.6%, to 14.5 billion rubles. year on year, according to the Infoline study.

For the fourth quarter of 2023, analysts say, sales increased by 11.9% year-on-year and by 7.1% quarter-on-quarter, to RUB 3.75 billion.

General Director of Infoline-Analytics Mikhail Burmistrov says that market growth can stimulate the entry of delivery services for rations and kits into new cities and regions, as well as the launch of more budget lines. Senior analyst at Data Insight Olga Pashkova also notes that the main players have adjusted their product range and pricing policy. But, she warns, it is unlikely that it will be possible to return to the values ​​at the end of 2021 in the coming years.

The founder and president of the Performance Group (Performance Food, Level Kitchen, My Food) Arthur Zeleny says that the budget line “My Food Simply”, launched for this group, costing 9.9 thousand rubles. shows good sales per month, and for promotion you don’t need to spend money on marketing. CEO of the Priem service (part of Grow Food), Alexander Filatov, also expects the active development of the diet category in the lower price range.

According to Mr. Filatov, Priyom began operating in nine new cities in 2023 and plans to continue expansion in the regions. Arthur Zeleny says that the current goal of the Performance Group is to enter large cities located beyond the Urals. In the future, he expects, the share of regional sales will grow faster. Infoline in its study clarifies that Performance Group plans to begin sales in Vladivostok, Voronezh, Krasnoyarsk, Kursk, Lipetsk, and Novosibirsk in 2024. Grow Food reported that in 2024 they plan to open a factory and office in Moscow, expand the staff and launch regional expansion.

Elementaree expects to increase sales by 15% year-on-year in 2024, says company founder Olga Zinovieva.

In September 2023, Elementaree bought the Taste at Home service, which allowed it to expand its customer base, according to the Infoline study. Shefmarket founder Sergei Ashin expects turnover to increase by 20–25% in 2024. According to him, meal kits still have their consumers, despite competition from ready-to-eat food delivery services.

As Infoline notes, the market for the delivery of rations and kits continues to be negatively affected by consumer savings and increased competition in the ready-to-eat food market, including with large retailers. Attracting new consumers is complicated by changes in promotion channels, including due to the blocking of some social networks, analysts conclude.

Olga Zinovieva confirms that finding an alternative to social networks blocked in Russia remains a barrier. “Previously, a lot of customer traffic came from there,” she points out. According to Sergei Ashin, the main problem of business is customer retention. Grow Food notes that macroeconomic factors may affect demand, but the company is ready to optimize processes and adapt.

Despite the expected resumption of market growth, the consolidation trend will continue, Arthur Zeleny expects. According to Infoline, in 2023 the share of companies outside the top five in sales fell from 27.3% to 16.5%.

Vladimir Komarov