Russian airlines note an increase in the depth of air ticket bookings

Russian airlines note an increase in the depth of air ticket bookings. According to carriers, with long-term planning you can save 5-40% of ticket prices. However, experts clarify that the situation before the pandemic and military operations is still far away: the depth of booking directly depends on the stability of the exchange rate and the confidence of passengers in maintaining their income.

A survey of airlines conducted by Kommersant showed that in 2023, passengers began to purchase tickets in advance more often than in 2021–2022. On international routes, the depth of sales remains traditionally higher than on domestic flights.

Thus, S7 Airlines notes that in 2022 the share of ticket sales less than two weeks before departure was 58%, in 2023 – 48%, and in January 2024 – only 27%. The share of sales more than 60 days before departure increased from 10% in 2022 to 16% at the end of 2023; in January 2024, this figure reached 30%.

“We see a trend that people are starting to make travel decisions earlier,” the airline concludes.

Aeroflot (which also sells tickets to the Rossiya group) told Kommersant that on international routes in 2023 the main load was formed on average four weeks before departure “with an increase in depth for holidays and New Year holidays.” On domestic routes, passengers often decide to purchase tickets several days before departure. The company did not specify the timing for 2021–2022, noting only that “the situation has improved,” and in 2024 they expect an increase in the booking depth compared to 2023.

An increase in ticket booking times is also noted in Red Wings, where the average indicator on domestic and international lines is the same: “But it depends on the direction, on some the depth is greater: Georgia, Israel, the northern regions of the Russian Federation.”

At the same time, an interlocutor at another large company says that the situation there “has not changed since 2021.” And Smartavia, which has stopped flying abroad since 2022 and moved its home airport from Arkhangelsk to St. Petersburg, admitted that the depth of sales has “decreased somewhat.”

According to Aviasales, booking depth in 2023 increased by 8.4 percentage points: tickets for domestic flights were booked an average of 14.7 days in advance, and for international flights – 17.76 days.

The service clarified that round-trip tickets are booked on average 23.6 days before departure, and only one-way tickets are booked 12.3 days before departure.

According to OneTwoTrip, the majority of passengers (62.5%) book domestic flights less than a week before departure. A quarter of travelers (25.7%) place orders two to four weeks in advance, 8% place orders two to three months in advance. Many people plan trips abroad in advance, but the largest group, accounting for 42.4%, also buys tickets on average a week before the trip. Almost every third (30.5%) makes a reservation two to four weeks in advance, every fifth (19.1%) makes a reservation two to three months in advance, and 6.7% makes a reservation four to six months in advance.

The service confirms the trend: among OneTwoTrip users in 2023, the share of those who began to book travel in the Russian Federation in six months increased almost threefold, in four to six months – by 2.5 times, in two to three months – by 21% . At the same time, those who buy tickets immediately before the trip have decreased by 20%. A similar upward trend in booking depth is observed on foreign routes.

Savings remain an incentive to purchase tickets in advance.

Thus, according to Smartavia, “subject to the absence of any force majeure circumstances,” the reduction in ticket prices on certain routes can reach 15%. The Red Wings indicated that pre-sale prices are 5% to 10% lower. S7 noted that on average, a passenger who now buys a ticket, for example, for the school holidays at the end of March, can save about 24% compared to those who bother to buy a ticket a week or two before departure. For summer holidays the benefits will be even greater. But the company clarified that the situation is unique for each direction. For example, if you buy air tickets to Sochi two months before departure, on average they will cost 25% cheaper than in the last two weeks. By purchasing tickets to the Far East in advance, you can save up to 40%.

S7 said that when purchasing a ticket to Sochi four days before departure in 2022, the passenger occupied the 30th of 150 seats, and in 2023 – already the 95th: “In such a situation, the cost of the ticket will be different.” At the same time, a passenger who purchased a ticket in advance on the 30th in 2023 purchased it at a price similar to the price of 2022 with the difference for inflation. Aeroflot added that the dynamics of bookings and the demand forecast depend not only on the route, but also on the day and time of departure of the flight:

“Even at the same distance from the departure date, we may have different prices on different flights of the same route.”

The more stable the economic and political situation, the higher the depth of air ticket sales from international carriers, says Alexander Lanetsky, CEO of Friendly Avia Support. According to him, in EU countries, passengers purchase tickets to other countries for personal purposes (tourism and other trips) on average in two to three months, and in the low-cost segment – in five to six months. But for business trips, up to 80% of tickets are issued on average a week before departure. The Russian aviation market “approached similar dynamics until 2020, but especially in 2012–2013,” the expert clarifies (in 2014, Crimea was annexed to the Russian Federation and the first aggravation of Russian-Ukrainian relations occurred – “Kommersant”).

Long-term planning of passengers is facilitated primarily by the “factor of stable exchange rates and stable incomes,” emphasizes Mr. Lanetsky. Purchasing tickets in advance allows passengers to save money, and provides carriers with more predictable financial forecasts and plans, the expert explains, therefore, European airlines are trying to stimulate early ticket purchases with promotions and sales, especially to close the traditional “sales hole” before and after the New Year holidays.

Aigul Abdullina