Russia will reduce seaborne oil exports by 100–200 thousand bpd in January – Kommersant

Russia intends to reduce oil exports from seaports in January by 100-200 thousand barrels per day compared to the level of December this year, three sources familiar with supply plans told Reuters. According to them, the reduction is planned against the backdrop of increased processing at refineries.

“The average oil refining at Russian refineries in October was 5.5 million barrels per day, last week it increased to 5.7 million barrels per day,” Victor Katona, senior oil market analyst at Kpler, explained to Reuters. He noted that in January the company expects a decrease of 100–200 thousand b/d.

According to agency sources, the reduction will mainly affect the western ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk, since supplies through them are “easier for oil companies to regulate.” “The export schedule for the Transneft system for the first quarter of 2024 is lower than for October-December,” noted one of them.

In addition, Reuters interlocutors believe that the growth in refining will not lead to an increase in maritime exports from Russia, since Moscow can increase the volume of railway supplies to Belarus, Mongolia and Central Asia. According to Reuters calculations based on LSEG data, the retirement capacity of primary oil refining at Russian refineries in December amounted to 2.098 million tons compared to 2.92 million tons in November.

On December 17, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced that this month he would increase the reduction in exports of oil and petroleum products. According to him, Russia’s additional obligations until the end of 2023 amount to 300 thousand b/d, for the first quarter of 2024 – 500 thousand b/d. Mr. Novak claims that already this month the reduction will be more than the announced 300 thousand bpd, but does not indicate the exact volumes.

Read more about the situation on the energy market in the Kommersant article. “The IEA expects China to support oil demand”.